Gold Holds $4,500 Line as Hormuz Blockade Clashes With Hawkish Fed and Rising Dollar
01.06.2026 - 14:03:18 | boerse-global.de
Gold opened the week under pressure, sliding 0.69% to $4,538.40 an ounce as a strengthening dollar and climbing oil prices overwhelmed the traditional safe-haven bid that geopolitical turmoil usually provides. The yellow metal had closed Friday at $4,569.90, but Monday's retreat underscored a shifting market calculus: investors are increasingly pricing in the inflationary consequences of higher energy costs rather than fleeing to safety.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the wildcard. Since February 28, 2026, traffic through the chokepoint has plunged to about 5% of pre-conflict levels, disrupting flows that normally account for 20% of the world's crude oil and 20% of global LNG trade. Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged draft proposals aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the waterway. Whether the talks are progressing toward a deal remains unclear, leaving traders to weigh a peculiar dynamic: gold and oil are now exhibiting a pronounced negative correlation, with the precious metal behaving more like a risk asset than a haven during the latest energy-driven selloff.
The dollar's strength compounds the headwind. A firmer greenback makes bullion more expensive for buyers outside the US currency zone, and when combined with rising energy costs, it fuels inflation expectations that keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. Michelle Bowman, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, warned on Friday that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could sustain inflationary pressures and might require tighter policy. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson echoed that caution, describing the current mildly restrictive stance as appropriate given "uncertain outlook with still elevated inflation risks." The central bank has held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% since the last cut on December 10, 2025, and the FedWatch tool now assigns a 47.4% probability of a rate hike by year-end versus a mere 0.6% chance of a cut — a remarkable shift from earlier expectations. All eyes are on the FOMC gathering June 16-17, which will deliver fresh projections and an updated dot plot.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Physical demand, ordinarily a buffer, offers little support. India's appetite remains muted due to elevated prices and import duties, while Chinese premiums have narrowed as buyers adopt a cautious posture. The absence of robust Asian buying leaves the market without a key pillar, and the technical picture confirms the lack of conviction: gold trades 2.19% below its 50-day moving average, and the relative strength index sits at 49.8 — neutral territory that suggests no imminent breakout in either direction.
On a monthly basis, bullion has shed about 0.8%, yet the year-on-year performance remains impressive at a 34% gain. Analysts point to three structural supports that have carried the metal higher: the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sustained central bank purchases, and the Fed's interest rate trajectory. Of those, only the blockade currently provides unambiguous tailwinds. The next major catalyst will be the US jobs report due this week, which could further shape expectations for the Fed's next move. Meanwhile, the fate of the proposed Iran ceasefire deal — now awaiting a decision from President Donald Trump — hangs over the market. A diplomatic breakthrough would ease oil prices and inflation fears but also diminish the geopolitical risk premium that has kept gold afloat above $4,500.
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