In Nebius’s AI Infrastructure Gold Rush, Customers Are Already Fighting for Every GPU

The scramble for artificial-intelligence computing capacity has become so intense that Nebius Group’s customers are now competing against each other for the same graphics processors. “Several clients are bidding for each new GPU,” Chief Executive Arkady Volozh said, describing a market where demand outstrips supply so severely that the company already sees a full order book reaching into 2027.

This extreme demand is driving what may be the most aggressive capital spending program in the young AI-infrastructure sector. Nebius plans to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion this year, a sharp increase from its previous budget, after pouring $2.5 billion into hardware and data centers in the first quarter alone.

Revenue Surge Masks Underlying Accounting Nuances

The urgency is backed by blistering top-line growth. Total revenue reached $399 million in the first quarter, a 684 percent jump from a year earlier and comfortably ahead of the $371.4 million analysts had expected. The core AI-cloud segment, which now accounts for nearly all group sales, grew even faster—841 percent to roughly $390 million.

The profit picture, however, is more layered. On a GAAP basis, Nebius reported net income from continuing operations of $621.2 million, a figure that was heavily boosted by a $780.6 million gain from revaluing its stake in database company ClickHouse. Strip out such non-operating items and the company posted an adjusted net loss of $100.3 million. Similarly, GAAP earnings per share came in at a loss of $0.23, while adjusted EPS swung to a positive $2.11—far above the consensus forecast for a loss.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $129.5 million, compared with a loss of $53.7 million in the same quarter last year. The improving operational trend is encouraging, but the quality of earnings remains a point of focus for analysts.

A Billion-Dollar Infrastructure Footprint Takes Shape

To sustain that growth, Nebius is racing to lock in physical capacity. The company just secured a second giant AI factory site in Pennsylvania, delivering 1.2 gigawatts of power. The development came just a day after the ground-breaking for a similarly sized campus in Missouri. Combined, Nebius now has more than 3.5 gigawatts of contracted electricity capacity, over three-quarters of which it owns outright. Management’s target is to surpass 4 gigawatts by year-end.

By the close of 2026, Nebius aims to bring up to one gigawatt of fully equipped compute capacity online. The capital required for that build-out is being financed by a war chest of $9.3 billion in cash, underpinned by more than $6 billion in capital raisings. Nvidia alone contributed $2 billion through an equity investment, while convertible bond sales added over $4 billion.

Strategic Deals Bolster Both Revenue and Technology

A five-year agreement with Meta Platforms could be worth as much as $27 billion, giving Nebius a major anchor customer for its forthcoming capacity. Meanwhile, a new distribution partnership with TD Synnex, which serves over 150,000 clients worldwide, opens a vast new channel to sell AI cloud services.

On the technology front, Nebius has completed the licensing of AI inference technology from Clarifai and absorbed that company’s core team. The move follows the $643 million acquisition of Eigen AI and the purchase of Tavily, all aimed at strengthening what the company calls its “Nebius Token Factory.” Analysts believe the inference market could represent roughly two-thirds of total AI compute demand by the end of this year.

Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Full-Year Outlook and Analyst Sentiment

For the full year 2026, Nebius management expects revenue of up to $3.4 billion. The stock reacted enthusiastically to the quarterly release, jumping 14 to 19 percent in early trading to hit a new 12-month high of $204.72. The consensus rating among 16 analysts remains “outperform,” with an average price target of $179.07.

The next critical test will be utilization rates. Nebius is betting that its massive upfront spending will pay off if it can fill the new data centers quickly with paying customers. Any delay in ramping up occupancy would leave the company exposed to depreciation charges and fixed costs that could compress margins—a risk that, in this gold rush, no one can afford to ignore.

Ad

Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 14 May

Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Nebius analysis...

en | NL0009805522 | NEBIUS’S | boerse | 69328842 |