IonQ Clears SkyWater Vote But Faces Deeper FTC Probe as Revenue Surge Fuels Growth

The road to IonQ’s $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology just got a shareholder thumbs-up, but a tougher antitrust review may slow the finish. SkyWater investors voted overwhelmingly on May 8 to approve the deal, with nearly 33 million shares cast in favor. IonQ now moves from pure-play quantum computing to a vertically integrated chipmaker with its own US fabrication lines — a critical step for winning classified contracts from the Pentagon and Department of Energy.

The market rewarded the milestone with a sharp rally. IonQ shares jumped 18% on Monday to a six-month high, with trading volume above 56 million shares — more than double the three-month daily average. By Tuesday the stock eased slightly to close at $55.87. Behind the euphoria, however, a regulatory cloud hangs over the timeline.

FTC puts the brakes on

The Federal Trade Commission already fired a warning shot in late April, issuing a “second request” for additional documents and data. This deep-dive antitrust review automatically extends the statutory waiting period, meaning the deal’s completion — still targeted for the second or third quarter of 2026 — may slip if the agency demands concessions. Management maintains the timeline is intact, but the cartel clearance remains the only significant hurdle left.

Commercial momentum picks up

While the acquisition drama unfolds, IonQ’s underlying business is accelerating faster than many expected. First-quarter revenue hit $64.7 million, a staggering 755% increase year-over-year. Crucially, commercial clients now account for roughly 60% of total sales, a clear pivot away from heavy reliance on government contracts. The company’s order backlog — unfulfilled contracts on the books — swelled 554% to $470 million, giving executives ample visibility into near-term growth.

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That top-line surge prompted management to lift full-year 2026 guidance, now projecting revenue as high as $270 million. For the current second quarter, the company expects up to $68 million in sales.

The scaling comes at a cost. Adjusted operating losses narrowed slightly from the prior year but still sat at nearly $97 million in the first quarter. Investors are largely looking past the red ink, focusing instead on the rapid commercial adoption and the strategic logic of bringing chip production in-house.

Wall Street cheers but stays cautious

Analyst reactions reflect the tension between optimism and valuation. JPMorgan raised its price target to $50 but kept a “Neutral” rating, warning that the stock already prices in a lot of upside and that competition from Amazon, Alphabet and IBM is intensifying. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore lifted his target modestly to $48.50, also sticking with a Hold rating while acknowledging strong revenue trends. The most bullish call comes from Wedbush, which reiterated its “Outperform” rating and sees fair value at $60.

The company will have a chance to pitch its integration story directly to investors on May 18 at JPMorgan’s Boston technology conference, followed by the B. Riley annual conference in Marina del Rey two days later.

Vertical integration as a strategic wedge

With SkyWater’s facilities in Minnesota, Florida and Texas, IonQ plans to manufacture its ion-trap chips in-house, cutting reliance on external foundries and accelerating development of its next-generation 256-qubit systems. A domestic, secure supply chain is a prerequisite for pursuing lucrative contracts from the US defense and energy departments — markets where provenance counts as much as performance.

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The company ended March with more than $3 billion in liquidity, providing ample firepower to integrate SkyWater and absorb previous acquisitions such as Oxford Ionics into a broader quantum platform. The acquisition is expected to close once the FTC clears its review and final conditions are met.

For now, IonQ is juggling two narratives: a business firing on all cylinders commercially and a transformative deal that still needs regulatory sign-off. If the FTC gives the green light without structural remedies, the path to full system integration and volume production looks clear. If the probe drags on, shareholders who just celebrated 18% gains may have to wait longer for the next leg of the story.

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