ITM Power: A 104% Year-to-Date Surge Meets Resistance as MSCI Arbitrage and Profit-Taking Weigh
13.06.2026 - 14:25:16 | boerse-global.de
The hydrogen stock that delivered one of Europe’s most eye-catching rallies in early 2024 is now facing a sobering reality check. ITM Power climbed from €0.65 to €2.58 in less than five months, only to shed roughly a third of those gains. In the past week alone, the shares lost nearly 11%, closing at €1.49 on Friday with no obvious trigger for the selloff.
The retreat accelerated after what might seem like a positive development: ITM Power’s addition to the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the start of June. The index inclusion sparked a wave of passive fund buying, estimated at $25–$30 million. But arbitrage traders who had positioned for that guaranteed demand quickly unwound their bets once the buying was complete, sending the stock sharply lower. Goldman Sachs added to the pressure by reaffirming its sell recommendation and a 63 pence price target, arguing that the valuation had run far ahead of the company’s path to profitability.
Analyst sentiment is far from uniform, however. Morgan Stanley sees fair value at 170 pence, while Berenberg lifted its target from 100 to 110 pence and kept a buy rating, citing the security of state subsidies. The overall consensus among the twelve analysts covering ITM Power remains a “buy,” with an average target of around 119 British pence.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Under the hood, the fundamental picture hasn’t deteriorated. In February, management raised its revenue guidance for the 2026 financial year to a range of £40 million to £43 million, an increase of more than 10%. Then in April, the company secured an £86.5 million state support package — £40 million as an equity injection from Great British Energy and £46.5 million as a grant from the Department for Energy Security. The funds will finance a new fully automated manufacturing line in the UK, targeting an annual capacity of one gigawatt for the next-generation Chronos electrolyser stack. PEM electrolysis is ITM Power’s core technology, and its customers include Shell, RWE, and Linde.
On the project front, the company announced a strategic alliance with Protium in early June, centred on the Cromarty project in Scotland. The facility is designed to reach 15 megawatts of capacity, producing seven tonnes of green hydrogen daily. A final investment decision by the consortium is scheduled for December 2026 — leaving the management team with ample time to demonstrate progress.
Technically, the shares have fallen below the 50-day moving average of €1.64, which now acts as the first resistance level. The 200-day line at €1.01 remains a sturdy support, preserving the long-term uptrend. The relative strength index sits near 40, hinting at oversold conditions without confirming them. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at an extreme 96%, reflecting the market’s jitters. Despite the pullback, ITM Power still trades more than 104% higher year-to-date.
Concrete catalysts in the near term are scarce, but progress reports on the new manufacturing line or an update on revenue for the current fiscal year could reignite buying interest. Until then, the stock is caught between big-picture support from state backing and the market’s impatience for profitability.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 13 June
Fresh ITM Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
