ITM Power: Retail Exodus and Institutional Inflows Collide Ahead of Pivotal Catalysts
23.05.2026 - 10:52:48 | boerse-global.de
ITM Power’s share price has surged more than 260% this year, yet a significant portion of that rally is being met by a steady stream of sellers. On Friday, the stock jumped 6.4% to close at 170.20 pence after touching a session high of 173.00 pence, with more than 8.5 million shares changing hands. But activity on retail platforms tells a different story: on Interactive Investor, ITM was among the ten most-traded names, yet only 34% of transactions were buys. The same pattern appeared on AJ Bell, where the hydrogen stock became the most frequently sold equity, outpacing even Rolls-Royce and Shell. The rally, it seems, is being driven more by momentum than by conviction among smaller investors.
That divergence will be tested in the coming days by two distinct catalysts. After the market closes on 29 May, ITM Power will be added to the MSCI United Kingdom Small Cap Index. The passive rebalancing is expected to trigger forced buying from funds and ETFs tracking the index — a technical tailwind that has historically provided a meaningful lift for mid-cap names. With a market capitalisation of roughly £1.12 billion, ITM is large enough to register in such rebalancings but small enough for the inflow to feel concentrated.
Before that, however, the company awaits a far more consequential decision: a government grant ruling for a new automated electrolyser production line in Sheffield. The facility is designed to build the Chronos electrolyser, each module delivering 2 megawatts — roughly three times the output of the current system — while cutting costs by 40% and halving the required floor space. The total project cost is estimated at up to £120 million, backed by £86.5 million in state support, including a £40 million commitment from Great British Energy. If approved, management will make a final investment decision and target commercial operations in 2028.
The outcome of that grant decision will test the credibility of ITM’s industrial scaling story — a narrative that remains deeply contested among analysts. Jefferies recently lifted its price target to 200 pence with a Buy rating, while Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight and raised its target to 170 pence, calling it the first Overweight rating in the hydrogen OEM space since 2021. Morgan Stanley sees potential for an EBITDA break-even in fiscal 2028 if ITM wins roughly 200 megawatts of new orders. On the other side of the spectrum, UBS values the stock at just 60 pence. Across ten analysts covering the name, the median price target stands at 93.52 pence, with targets ranging from 55 pence to 170 pence. Friday’s closing price already sits at the top end of that range, implying that further upside depends entirely on operational execution rather than macro sentiment.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Insider activity has sent mixed signals of its own. On 15 May, chief executive Dennis Schulz and chief technology officer Simon Bourne each bought 184 shares at an average of 162 pence under the company’s “Buy as You Earn” plan. But on the same day, Bourne exercised options on 1.33 million shares at an average of 32 pence and subsequently sold roughly 873,000 of them at 157.44 pence, a move the company attributed to tax obligations. Schulz, meanwhile, has a different incentive: his 1.3 million restricted shares will vest only if ITM secures profitable contracts and brings the Chronos line online as planned — no profit, no shares.
Underlying the share price drama is a business that is making operational headway while remaining deeply unprofitable. First-half revenue for fiscal 2026 reached a record £18 million, and management has guided for £40-43 million for the full year. The order backlog stands at £152 million, with 71% of that already deemed profitable — a significant improvement from the company’s earlier, margin-thin portfolio. But the pre-tax loss widened to £45.4 million in the year to April 2025, up from £27.1 million a year earlier. Cash remains comfortable at £210-215 million, boosted by the Great British Energy participation.
Beyond the Sheffield decision, ITM has other projects that could sustain the news flow. It has won the FEED contract for Uniper’s Humber H2ub project, where it will supply six POSEIDON modules for a 120-megawatt facility expected to begin commercial operations in 2029. In April, it also announced a collaboration with Rheinmetall on the Giga PtX project, targeting decentralised synthetic fuel plants across Europe, each capable of up to 50 megawatts of electrolysis capacity and geared toward NATO requirements.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
On the technical side, the stock is running hot. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 75, suggesting overbought conditions. The immediate resistance corridor runs from Friday’s intraday high of 173 pence to the 52-week peak of 179.70 pence. Support has formed in the 150.9-152.9 pence zone, anchored by Wednesday’s closing low and Friday’s session floor. The five-day moving average around 160.5 pence now sits comfortably below the current price. On a monthly basis, the shares have climbed roughly 22% from the 22 April close of 139.8 pence, while the year-to-date gain of approximately 261% has turned ITM into one of the best-performing names in the clean-energy space.
With the grant decision expected within days and the MSCI inclusion following immediately after, ITM Power enters a compressed window of binary outcomes. If Sheffield is approved, the funding will cover the Chronos ramp-up. If not, the stock will have to prove its current valuation without that anchor. Either way, the next two sessions will reveal whether the retail exodus or the institutional inflow has the upper hand.
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