ITM Power's June Crucible: Three Decisions That Will Make or Break the Hydrogen Stock's Rally
07.06.2026 - 13:06:00 | boerse-global.de
For a company that just locked in an £86.5 million state-backed lifeline, landed a strategic hydrogen partnership, and lifted its revenue forecast, the share price telling a very different story. ITM Power's stock crashed 27% in seven trading sessions, closing at €1.68 on Friday after a single-day rout of 14.45% — this despite a year?to?date gain that still stands at a staggering 131%.
The drop is a textbook case of multiple forces converging on the same stock. The primary trigger was a classic "sell the fact" move tied to index inclusion. After ITM Power was added to the MSCI UK Small Cap index at the end of May, hedge funds that had front?run the rebalancing swiftly unwound their positions. The resulting supply glut knocked the shares down 26% in the week following the index change.
That selling accelerated when Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Sell" rating, lifting its price target only modestly to 63 pence from 55 pence — far below the current market price. The analyst community is deeply divided: Jefferies has a 200?pence target, Morgan Stanley 170 pence, and Berenberg rates the stock a "Buy" with a 110?pence target, while UBS keeps a "Neutral" at 60 pence. The spread, from 60 to 200 pence, underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock.
Sector?wide jitters added fuel. Ballard Power Systems slumped 19% in the same period, Plug Power lost about 12%, and a separate warning from Clean Power Hydrogen — whose pilot electrolyser was irreparably damaged, leading to a trading suspension — amplified existing doubts about the technology's commercial readiness.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Yet beneath the violent price action, ITM Power’s operational story has rarely looked stronger. Great British Energy took a 10.4% stake with a £40 million investment, and a separate £46.5 million grant for factory automation brings total state support to £86.5 million. The company now expects revenue of £40?43 million for fiscal 2026, up 35%, while its order backlog stands at £152 million, 71% of which is deemed profitable. The adjusted EBITDA deficit has narrowed sharply to £11.9 million, and the liquidity forecast has been raised to £210?215 million from £170?175 million.
The catch: the headline partnership with Protium Green Solutions is a framework agreement, not a binding offtake contract. The first project — a 15?megawatt green hydrogen plant in Cromarty, Scotland, capable of producing seven tonnes per day — will not see a final investment decision before December 2026. Concrete revenue from the deal remains years away.
That makes the next few weeks critical. Three binary catalysts land in June. The second round of the UK’s hydrogen allocation programme (HAR2) will award contracts; ITM Power is already named as preferred supplier for two projects. Separately, the company must make a final investment decision on its new 1?gigawatt Chronos factory in Sheffield — a facility backed by £86.5 million in state aid that promises triple the production output at half the footprint and 40% lower capital costs. Third, Uniper’s decision on the Humber H2ub project, for which ITM is set to supply six Poseidon electrolyser modules, looms as a potential order catalyst.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, the stock is testing support: the 50?day moving average sits at €1.56, just 7.3% below Friday’s close. A break below that level could trigger a fresh wave of selling. The relative strength index at 42.3 and an annualised 30?day volatility of 103% leave little margin for error. With all three decisions expected before the next quarterly report on September 15, ITM Power is entering a period where operational milestones and market perception will collide — and only one of them is likely to emerge intact.
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