ITM Power’s Retail Rush Meets a Pivotal June: Three Decisions Hold the Key
02.06.2026 - 12:12:18 | boerse-global.de
A surge of retail buying swept through ITM Power shares on Monday, with 68% of all orders placed on the Interactive Investor platform tilted to the buy side. The activity placed the electrolyser maker among the ten most traded names on the platform that morning, rubbing shoulders with blue-chip heavyweights such as easyJet, Aviva, Glencore and Rolls-Royce Holdings. Yet the move came in the absence of any fresh company news — the most recent regulatory filings date back to mid-May and late April.
The data, covering the period from market open to late morning, captures only trading on a single retail platform. It says nothing about institutional flows or overall market depth. Still, the lopsided buy-to-sell ratio points to a positive mood among individual investors, even if the signal remains a snapshot rather than a trend.
That retail enthusiasm follows a much bigger narrative. ITM Power has been on a blistering run: the stock surged 164% in London over the past three months, outpacing most hydrogen peers. Ballard Power climbed 163% over the same stretch, Plug Power 105% and NEL ASA 70%. Analysts see this not as a repeat of the hydrogen hype cycle but as a selective re-rating — investors are beginning to draw sharp lines between companies that can deliver and those still trading on promises.
Three Catalysts That Could Define the Next Leg
June is shaping up as a month of reckoning. Three separate decisions are due that could cement the company’s trajectory for years. The first and most consequential is the final investment decision on the Chronos programme, the next-generation electrolyser system that promises three times the output of its predecessor at 40% lower capital cost and half the footprint. Management has said it will commit to Chronos immediately after securing grant funding — and that funding is already in place. The UK government has approved a £46.5 million capital grant to build a 1-gigawatt factory in Sheffield, and Great British Energy contributed a further £40 million in equity in April. Commercial production is slated for 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
A second trigger comes from the HAR2 hydrogen allocation round. Twenty-seven projects are on the shortlist. ITM has already been selected as the preferred supplier for one large HAR2 project and one smaller scheme, though both remain subject to final investment decisions by the developers. If those go ahead, they would add meaningful order flow.
Third, Uniper’s Humber H2ub project at Killingholme sees ITM supplying six 20 MW POSEIDON modules for an initial 120 MW phase, with potential expansion beyond 200 MW. First operation is targeted for 2029. A positive Uniper vote would be another strong endorsement.
Awards and Financial Progress
The company has also been winning plaudits. At the World Hydrogen Summit 2026 in Rotterdam, its REFHYNE-2 project — a 100 MW PEM electrolyser built for Shell at the Energy and Chemicals Park Rheinland in Germany — captured both the Clean Hydrogen Project Award and the Industrial Application Award. The plant is due to produce up to 44,000 kilograms of renewable hydrogen daily from 2027.
Financially, ITM is making progress but remains in the red. Revenue for fiscal 2026 is guided to £40–43 million, up roughly 35% year on year, with a record first-half contribution of £18 million. The adjusted EBITDA deficit narrowed to £11.9 million in the first half from £16.8 million a year earlier, but the full-year loss is pegged at £27–29 million. The pretax loss widened to £45.4 million. More encouragingly, the order book stands at £152 million, and 71% of contracts are now considered profitable — up from just 6% a year ago.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analyst sentiment has turned decisively positive. Jefferies raised its price target to 200 pence. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight, the first bullish rating on a UK hydrogen name since 2021, and forecast that ITM could hit EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028 — a year earlier than previously expected — provided it books roughly 200 MW of new orders.
The company will report full-year results on 15 September 2026. By then, all three June decisions — Chronos FID, HAR2 awards and Uniper’s green light — should be known. For a stock that has already run hard on promise, the next few weeks will determine whether the rally has substance to sustain it.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 2 June
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