KNDS Races Against SpaceX and an Overhauled Factory Floor for Summer IPO
05.06.2026 - 18:30:02 | boerse-global.de
The clock is ticking for KNDS. With less than two weeks until the Eurosatory defence trade fair in Paris, Europe’s largest armoured vehicle maker is scrambling to launch a dual listing in Frankfurt and Paris before a potential capital vacuum hits. The SpaceX juggernaut is reportedly eyeing a Nasdaq debut on June 12, at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, threatening to suck liquidity out of equity markets just as KNDS tries to woo investors.
The company finally cleared a critical internal hurdle on June 2, when a joint internal and external compliance review of a 2013 contract for Leopard 2 tanks and PzH-2000 howitzers to Qatar ended without finding any wrongdoing. That green light was the precondition for auditor PwC to sign off on the 2025 annual accounts. Without that testat, the IPO could not proceed. Now both the prospectus and the audit are complete, leaving a summer listing – June or July – firmly on the table.
But a messy ownership picture is complicating the marketing effort. The German government, via KfW, will take a 40% anchor stake at listing, matching the French state’s holding. That leaves only 20% free float for institutional and retail investors – a thin slice that bankers argue justifies the €20 billion to €25 billion valuation range. Both sovereign shareholders plan to trim their stakes to 30% each within three years, eventually doubling the free float. The situation got even more tangled when the Czech CSG Group confirmed it is in talks to buy shares from the German founding families, who currently hold 50% alongside the French state. Adding a third industrial heavyweight would shift the balance further and could delay the final ownership structure until just before pricing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying KNDS?
Operationally, the numbers are stellar. Revenue climbed 15.9% in 2025 to €4.4 billion, while earnings before interest and tax reached €661 million, translating to a 15% margin. The ammunition division surged 24.7% as European NATO countries restock depleted arsenals. Order intake hit €13.5 billion last year, pushing the total backlog to €33.1 billion – a cash-flow cushion that management is banking on to defend its valuation.
Filling those orders is another matter. CEO Jean-Paul Alary is actively negotiating with car manufacturers to convert their idle factories into production lines for tanks and shells. KNDS urgently needs extra capacity, and repurposing existing automotive plants offers a faster route than building from scratch.
Meanwhile, the company is pushing its "One KNDS" integration via two key joint ventures. EuroPuls, a tie-up with Israel’s Elbit Systems, will produce rocket artillery systems for European forces. Germany alone plans to order around 500 MARS-3 launchers based on that platform. A second venture, EuroTrophy, teams KNDS with Rafael and General Dynamics to equip vehicles with active protection systems. Around 200 armoured vehicles – including the Leopard 2A8 destined for Germany and Norway – are already being fitted, with plans to extend the system to the Boxer and the CV90 infantry fighting vehicle.
The next two weeks will determine if KNDS can avoid the SpaceX gravitational pull and float before the summer lull. If the timing slips, the next window opens only in September. With a €33 billion order book, cleared compliance files, and a production strategy that borrows from the auto industry, the groundwork is laid – but the capital markets calendar is unforgiving.
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KNDS Stock: New Analysis - 5 June
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