Leopold Aschenbrenner Takes 5.6% Stake in Nebius as Shares Jostle Between Nvidia Praise and Valuation Fears
03.06.2026 - 14:22:16 | boerse-global.de
Former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner has emerged as a significant shareholder in Nebius, disclosing a 5.6% stake that the market has interpreted as a powerful endorsement from within the artificial intelligence community. His bet comes at a moment when the stock is experiencing sharp volatility: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently described Nebius as growing “incredibly fast” during a Computex appearance, sending the shares to a 52-week high of €242.95 before profit-taking knocked them back to €226.55. That is roughly $263 at current exchange rates, leaving the equity trading near the upper end of a wide range of analyst targets.
The price action tells only part of the story. Huang’s public praise reinforced a partnership that already carried a $2 billion commitment from Nvidia in March, but technical indicators suggest the rally may have run ahead of itself. The relative strength index has sunk to 16.2, deep inside oversold territory, even as the stock has gained nearly 200% over the past year and multiplied twelvefold in twelve months. With a short-interest ratio of around 18%, a significant portion of the market is betting on a pullback, and the strong hands that drove the earlier leg higher appear to be taking profits.
Nebius is ploughing capital into infrastructure at a staggering pace. The company has outlined a $20 billion to $25 billion investment programme stretching to 2027, anchored by a 1.2-gigawatt data centre in Pennsylvania designed to host massive GPU clusters for AI model training. A separate 310-megawatt facility in Lappeenranta, Finland, is scheduled to come online in June, serving as an early test of the company’s ability to execute its build-out. Not all projects are running smoothly: a planned data centre in Independence, Missouri, faces opposition from a citizen group that is considering legal action, even though a local referendum failed to block it and construction began in mid-May.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The financial targets are no less ambitious. Management projects an annual recurring revenue of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of the year, which would represent a 540% advance from the $1.25 billion ARR recorded at the close of 2025. A backlog of orders worth more than $46 billion underpins that optimism, including a $27 billion agreement with Meta and a $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft. In the first quarter, total revenue surged 684% to $877.9 million, with the AI cloud segment alone jumping 841% to $389.7 million. Net income reached $735.3 million, underscoring the operating leverage inherent in the hyperscale cloud model.
Yet the valuation invites scepticism. At roughly 20 times estimated 2027 revenue, Nebius commands a premium that analysts are struggling to agree on. BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage with a Neutral rating and a $255 price target, while Citigroup remains more bullish at $287. The consensus, however, is far more cautious: one widely followed poll puts the average target at $188, well below the current price, while another survey pegs it at $221.71. The gap between the most optimistic and most pessimistic forecasts highlights the uncertainty surrounding a company that is spending billions to meet demand that may or may not materialise at the required scale.
The concentration of insider confidence versus analyst caution is striking. Aschenbrenner’s stake is the clearest signal yet that those closest to the AI research frontier see Nebius’s "neocloud" model as a durable competitive advantage, particularly given its preferential access to scarce Nvidia hardware. On the other hand, the high short interest and the downbeat consensus targets suggest that many professional investors are waiting for evidence that the company can convert its order backlog into cash flows without excessive dilution. Nebius has not provided detailed financing plans for its $25 billion capex programme, and some analysts warn of execution risks and the potential for equity issuance.
For now, the stock’s next move hinges on whether the company can deliver on the ARR guidance and demonstrate that its infrastructure build-out is proceeding on schedule. The June launch of the Finnish data centre will be an important milestone. If Nebius can keep its growth trajectory intact, the short sellers may be forced to cover; if delays or cost overruns emerge, the stock could face a reckoning from the very valuation multiples that have powered its ascent. Either way, the tension between a high-profile insider vote of confidence and a market that remains deeply divided promises to keep the shares in the spotlight.
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