Metaplanet's Bitcoin Hoard Hits 40,000 — Yet Shares Sink to 12-Month Low Amid Dilution Fears
04.06.2026 - 16:36:24 | boerse-global.de
Metaplanet has cemented its position as the world’s third-largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, with reserves swelling to 40,177 BTC worth roughly $3.1 billion after a fresh purchase of around 1,000 coins in late May. Only MicroStrategy and Twenty One Capital now hold more. Yet this milestone has done nothing to halt the stock’s slide — the Japanese Bitcoin treasury firm hit a fresh 52-week low of €1.29 on Thursday, marking an 89% collapse from the June 2025 peak of €11.40.
The contradiction encapsulates the growing tension between the company’s ambitious accumulation strategy and the market’s mounting unease about how it is funded. While Metaplanet’s BTC yield — the percentage growth in Bitcoin per share — remains the management’s overriding target, investors are focused on the cost: a dramatic dilution that has more than doubled the share count over the past year.
Operating growth masks a bleeding balance sheet
First-quarter revenue surged to ¥3.08 billion, a multi-fold jump from a year earlier. But the aggressive capital-raising engine that fuels the Bitcoin purchases has carved a deep hole in the company’s finances. Metaplanet posted a net loss of ¥114.5 billion for the period, driven by writedowns and financing costs tied to its zero-coupon bonds and put-option sales.
That model is now under intense scrutiny. As the equity price falls, fresh capital becomes more expensive and harder to raise — which in turn constrains the ability to buy more Bitcoin, undermining the very thesis that attracted investors in the first place. The technical picture offers no comfort: the stock trades more than 50% below its 200-day moving average of €2.67, while the relative strength index sits at 23.9, deep in oversold territory.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?
The warrant overhang that won't lift
A routine corporate filing on June 1 revealed the quiet but persistent drag from the company’s warrant programmes. In May, only 2,700 rights from the 27th series were exercised, generating 270,000 new shares at an exercise price of ¥362. Yet at month’s end, 947,300 rights remained outstanding — representing a potential deluge of roughly 94.7 million additional shares. The 23rd and 24th series remain suspended, while the 25th and 26th saw no exercises at all.
This overhang acts as a cap on the stock as long as the share price stays depressed. Even if some rights eventually expire worthless, the mere possibility of further dilution keeps buyers hesitant.
Ambition versus reality
Metaplanet’s long-term goal remains audacious: it aims to hold 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027, exactly 1% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply. The company’s management argues that the BTC yield — which measures Bitcoin growth per diluted share — justifies the constant capital raises. But with the stock now at its lowest level in a year and the financing model showing strain, the market is voting with its feet.
Metaplanet at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major test comes when Metaplanet releases its second-quarter full-year results in the coming weeks. That report will show whether the company can maintain its blistering acquisition pace while the stock languishes. For now, the 52-week low of €1.29 stands as the most telling signal — a stark reminder that even a 40,000-Bitcoin treasury cannot shield a stock from the consequences of how it was built.
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