Micron's $25 Billion Memory Blitz Can't Close the AI Supply Gap as the Stock Flirts With a Split
01.06.2026 - 16:32:26 | boerse-global.de
The gap between what hyperscalers need and what the memory industry can deliver is historically wide — and Micron Technology is betting tens of billions that it will stay that way. The chipmaker has raised its capital expenditure budget for fiscal 2026 to more than $25 billion, a $5 billion increase from prior plans and a jump of over $10 billion from the year before. Yet even with that sum, Micron does not expect meaningful new capacity to hit the market before late 2027, with a full ramp-up only coming in 2028.
The money is being spread across three continents. In Singapore, Micron is building a two-story wafer fab dedicated exclusively to advanced NAND production for AI data centers. In Manassas, Virginia, the company has started volume manufacturing of its 1-alpha DRAM node, a move that will quadruple the site's DDR4 output for the automotive and industrial sectors. Malaysia is handling the expansion of assembly and test operations. Altogether, the buildout will create roughly 3,000 new jobs in packaging, fab engineering and automation.
The demand-supply imbalance is stark. Hyperscalers can currently secure only about 60 percent of their memory requirements. Micron is responding with long-term fixed-price contracts that reduce exposure to the volatile spot market — a structural shift from past memory cycles. The company's leadership describes the current deficit as unprecedented, and analysts broadly agree. Susquehanna recently raised its price target from $600 to $1,750, maintaining a "Positive" rating, on expectations that memory prices will keep climbing. The firm sees DRAM prices rising 50 to 60 percent quarter-over-quarter and NAND prices surging 75 to 100 percent. Enterprise SSD demand could also pick up in the second half of 2026 as cloud providers scale up for large AI workloads.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
That pricing power has already lifted Micron's stock into rarefied territory. In late May, the company briefly crossed a $1 trillion market capitalization for the first time. Frankfurt-listed shares recently traded at €884.70, up 6.19 percent on the day, and have gained 228.88 percent year-to-date. Over the past 12 months, the rally stands at a staggering 931.24 percent. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-listed stock is hovering near $1,000 — a threshold that has revived talk of a stock split.
Micron has not announced a split for 2026, but the arguments are becoming harder to ignore: a four-figure share price, a trillion-dollar valuation and a powerful AI narrative. Canadian depositary receipts underwent a 5:1 split in March, fueling speculation even though the main Nasdaq shares remain untouched. Historically, Micron split its stock in 1994, 1995 and 2000 — all periods of high investor attention. Whether the company follows that pattern may hinge on the June 24 earnings report for the third fiscal quarter.
The numbers are already lofty. Micron expects third-quarter revenue of $33.5 billion, a gross margin around 81 percent and adjusted earnings per share of $19.15. That would follow a second quarter in which revenue jumped to $23.86 billion — up from $13.64 billion in the prior quarter and $8.05 billion a year earlier. The drumbeat of upward revisions has been relentless: the average analyst price target has jumped more than 10 percent in a single week five times in the past twelve months, and the stock now trades at a record premium to Wall Street's consensus since 2008.
Some investors worry that the massive investment program could eventually flood the market with supply. But short-term risks appear negligible: high-bandwidth memory demand is largely sold out under multiyear contracts, and new capacity takes years to come online. For now, the equation is simple — AI servers need enormous amounts of DRAM and NAND, and Micron is one of the few suppliers positioned to deliver. The real test comes June 24, when the company must prove that its operational strength matches the exuberance already priced into the stock.
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