Nebius Enters Nasdaq-100 as $2.6 Billion Hedge Fund Bet Meets $131 Million Insider Sell-Off
13.06.2026 - 02:44:48 | boerse-global.de
Nebius Group arrives on the Nasdaq-100 next Monday, but the real story is the collision of two big-money signals. One comes from index fund managers forced to load up on the stock. The other comes from a former OpenAI researcher who just sank $2.6 billion into Nebius shares — even as company insiders sold $131 million worth.
The market has already responded. The stock closed at €200.90 on Friday, a gain of 4.8%, and pushed toward €203 in subsequent trading, notching a near-6% advance. Year to date, the equity has more than doubled, jumping 165%. The 200-day moving average sits far below, a sign of structural repricing rather than a gentle uptrend.
Nasdaq announced the quarterly rebalancing on June 11, with Nebius joining alongside Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Rocket Lab and Teradyne. Five companies were dropped: Charter Communications, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Insmed, Verisk Analytics and Zscaler. The index tracks more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management, meaning passive funds and ETFs must now buy Nebius shares — creating mechanical demand that builds ahead of the June 22 effective date.
Leopold Aschenbrenner, through his hedge fund Situational Awareness, has placed a very different kind of bet. His 165-page essay concluded that physical infrastructure — data centers, chips, power grids — is the true bottleneck for artificial intelligence, not algorithms. Acting on that thesis, the fund acquired 12.4 million Nebius shares, equivalent to a 5.6% stake, worth roughly $2.6 billion at current prices. He bought after the stock had already surged, a move most managers would avoid.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Analysts have been raising their targets in parallel. Bank of America lifted its price objective to $280 on June 8 with a buy rating. Goldman Sachs followed two days later with a $267 target, citing surging demand for European AI infrastructure. Citigroup had already set a $287 target in mid-May.
The numbers support the enthusiasm. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $399 million, an increase of 684% from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA swung from a loss of $53.7 million to a profit of $129.5 million. Management guided for full-year revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 40%. Cloud revenue alone reached almost $390 million in the quarter.
The company is pouring money into expansion. In the UK, Nebius is spending about £1.7 billion on three new sites targeting 65 megawatts by 2027. In Pennsylvania, it has secured land and power connections for up to 1.2 gigawatts. The 2026 capital expenditure plan stands at $20 billion to $25 billion. That spending is backed by a broad funding base: a $17.4 billion GPU infrastructure contract with Microsoft, a five-year deal with Meta worth $27 billion, and Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in March 2025, which gave the chipmaker an 8.3% stake. Separately, Nebius has locked in a $12 billion capacity contract and has a potential Meta order worth up to $15 billion in the pipeline.
Yet the company is not content to be a simple GPU landlord. Management is integrating Tavily, Eigen AI and Clarifai into a unified platform dubbed the “token factory,” designed to lower the cost per generated token and capture higher-margin segments of the AI value chain. The acquisitions push Nebius closer to customer applications, moving from raw compute toward inference optimization and agent-based search.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Insiders, meanwhile, sold $131 million worth of stock over the past three months. Morningstar pegs fair value at $120, implying the shares are roughly 82% overvalued. The RSI of 56.8 suggests neutral-to-slightly-bullish momentum.
The tension is plain: Nebius expects only $3.4 billion in revenue this year but plans to invest up to $25 billion. With a market capitalization of about €48 billion, the debate between two plausible futures — explosive growth or overreach — is far from settled. Aschenbrenner has bet $2.6 billion on the first scenario. The mechanical buying from index funds will help, but the real test begins June 22, when the market decides how much optimism is already priced in.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 13 June
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
