Nebius Shatters Expectations with 684% Revenue Growth as Institutions Pile In Ahead of $20 Billion Infrastructure Push

The numbers are in from Nebius, and they are nothing short of eye-opening. The cloud and AI infrastructure company delivered first-quarter revenue of $399 million, a 684% surge that left analyst forecasts of roughly $379 million in the dust. The loss per share came in at $0.23, far better than the $0.78 the Street had braced for. This was a clean beat — and the market took notice, sending the stock to $211.40 by Wednesday’s close after a wild swing between $185.83 and $211.97.

Yet behind this explosive top-line growth lies a carefully orchestrated bull case that institutions had already begun to endorse before the results hit the tape. Millennium Management opened an $11.6 million position, UBS Asset Management added $9.1 million, and the Royal Bank of Canada chipped in $1.6 million — all during the first quarter. Collective institutional ownership now stands at 21.9% of the company’s shares, a notable vote of confidence for a firm that only recently listed under its current name.

The foundation for that confidence is a contract backlog approaching $50 billion. Meta Platforms anchors the pile with a $27 billion multi-year commitment, Microsoft has pledged up to $19.4 billion, and Nvidia holds a $2 billion strategic investment. Management is guiding for full-year 2026 revenue of $3.0 to $3.4 billion — up from just $530 million in 2025 — and targets an annualized recurring revenue run rate of $7 to $9 billion by year-end.

To hit those numbers, Nebius is spending at a breathtaking clip. Capital expenditure this year is projected between $16 billion and $20 billion, ensuring EBIT stays negative as GPUs, data centers, and R&D soak up cash. In the fourth quarter of 2025, capex already hit $2.1 billion versus $416 million a year earlier, and the net loss widened to $249.6 million. The company says it plans to have 16 data center sites with 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected capacity operational by the end of the year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

The most visible single bet is the new AI factory campus in Independence, Missouri. Ground broke Tuesday on a 400-acre site designed to eventually deliver 1.2 gigawatts of capacity. The initial land and site investment comes to $6.6 billion, but the full build-out across multiple phases could run into double-digit billions. Nebius promises 1,200 construction jobs, roughly 130 permanent roles, and an estimated $650 million for local school districts and tax authorities. Not everyone is convinced: residents have raised concerns over water usage, electricity prices, and wildlife impact, and a lawsuit that sought a city-wide vote was dismissed.

Meanwhile, Nebius is pushing beyond pure hardware infrastructure with its recent acquisition of Eigen, an AI software company, for roughly $643 million in cash and stock. Eigen’s technology reduces compute and storage requirements for running AI models, and Nebius plans to integrate it into Token Factory, its platform service. The move signals a shift toward higher-margin software offerings layered on top of the physical data center build-out.

The stock’s valuation leaves little margin for error. The price-to-book ratio stands at 9.75, more than double the industry average of 3.9. Eight of ten analysts rate the shares a buy. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to $205, and Bank of America followed suit with a similar bump from $175 to $205. Both maintain buy recommendations.

Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The critical milestone ahead is the first phase of the Missouri campus, slated to go live in the second quarter of 2027. Until then, Nebius must prove that it can accelerate revenue growth fast enough to justify the immense capital being deployed — and that it can keep local communities and regulators onside. The first-quarter results are a strong opening argument, but the real test is only beginning.

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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 13 May

Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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