Nel ASA: AI Frenzy Lifts Shares, But Q1 Numbers Reveal a Cost-Capacity Trade-Off
21.05.2026 - 11:44:14 | boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has ridden a wave of artificial-intelligence optimism to a year-to-date gain of roughly 46%, closing at €0.28. The surge, triggered in part by a strong quarterly showing from US peer Plug Power, has fuelled hopes that gigawatt-scale hydrogen demand from AI data centres will soon turn into real orders. But the Norwegian electrolyser maker's first-quarter 2026 results tell a more sobering story: deep cost cuts have come at the expense of manufacturing muscle, and the order book remains too thin to fill the factory in 2027.
Cost reduction, at a price
Nel has slashed its workforce to around 300 employees — a 26% reduction from the peak and 19% lower year-on-year. Personnel expenses dropped 21%, helping compress the loss. Yet management warns that the layoffs have also eroded production capacity. Should the hoped-for demand materialise, Nel may struggle to ramp up output as quickly as it once could.
The financial improvement is visible but far from a turnaround. Revenue from customer contracts fell 5% to NOK 148 million in the first quarter, while total income reached NOK 152 million. The EBITDA loss narrowed by NOK 15 million to minus NOK 100 million. Net loss came in at NOK 144 million, an improvement from NOK 179 million a year earlier. Profitability, however, remains a distant target.
Divergent divisional performance
Within Nel, the two core technologies moved in opposite directions. The alkaline division posted a 6% revenue increase and a NOK 35 million EBITDA improvement, a clear payoff from stricter cost controls. The PEM business, by contrast, saw revenue slide 14% and EBITDA worsen by NOK 16 million, partly due to delayed or cancelled grant funding from US programmes. A new PEM platform is in the pipeline — a prototype stack is due this year, targeting a 70% reduction in stack-level costs — but commercial benefits will take time to materialise.
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Order drought remains the central worry
New order intake in the first quarter reached just NOK 85 million, a level the company describes as insufficient to secure good plant utilisation in 2027. The order backlog stood at NOK 1.1 billion. Some bright spots exist: Nel commissioned a first off-grid 10-megawatt installation in Korea and subsequently landed a repeat order worth $7 million for containerised PEM equipment. A further order of roughly NOK 70 million has already been booked for the current quarter. Still, these isolated wins do not add up to the broad demand recovery Nel needs.
Cash cushion and EU support buy time
Nel ended the quarter with NOK 1.4 billion in liquidity, giving it breathing room despite ongoing cash burn. An additional €11 million from the EU Innovation Fund is expected in the second quarter, linked to the industrialisation of the pressurised alkaline platform. The overall programme is backed by up to €135 million in EU support, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs — a vital lever for funding technology development without straining the balance sheet.
Analysts remain unimpressed
Institutional watchers are not buying the AI narrative. The consensus rating on Nel remains "sell", with an average price target of just NOK 2.12. The stock's recent rally has pushed its RSI to 15.6, signalling significant short-term selling pressure and suggesting the optimism may be stretched.
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All eyes now turn to July 15, when CEO Håkon Volldal will present second-quarter results. The focus will be squarely on order intake — only firm contracts can prove whether the Alkaline platform can convert pipeline interest into commercial momentum. Until then, Nel's share price rests largely on a hope that hydrogen's AI-powered future will arrive before the capacity to deliver it is fully dismantled.
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