Nel ASA's 14% Surge Masks Deepening Order Book Woes as German Hydrogen Hopes Build
24.05.2026 - 12:42:17 | boerse-global.de
Nel ASA’s stock has delivered a remarkable 71% gain since the start of the year, yet the underlying business has rarely looked weaker. The Norwegian electrolyser maker saw its shares jump almost 14% on Friday to hit a fresh 52-week high of €0.33, a level 83% above the trough struck in early March. The catalyst? Not a corporate announcement, but a sweeping shift in sentiment across the hydrogen sector, amplified by an ambitious demand forecast from a key industry executive.
At the heart of the market’s renewed enthusiasm is a prediction from Sunfire CEO Nils Aldag, who expects German electrolysis capacity demand to reach five gigawatts within the next five years. That figure towers over the current installed base of just 185 megawatts, bringing the country’s 10 GW target for 2030 into clearer focus. Nel, as a well-established player in alkaline electrolysers, stands to benefit — provided those forecasts harden into binding orders.
The trouble is that tangible orders remain thin on the ground. Nel reported a 73% plunge in order intake for the first quarter of 2026, to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, while the order backlog shrank 24% to 1.113 billion kroner. CEO Håkon Volldal has predicted more final investment decisions this year than last, but the big contract wins that would validate the rally have yet to materialise. The company’s new generation of pressurised alkaline electrolysers, unveiled in May after more than eight years of development and tested at full scale in Herøya, carries a cost target of under $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25 MW system — a competitive price point, but one that will remain theoretical without commercial traction.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
Analysts remain cool on the story despite the share price surge. Berenberg’s James Carmichael cut his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner, keeping a neutral rating, and Citigroup followed suit by trimming from 2.70 to 2.40 kroner. Both cite persistent uncertainty around the commercial ramp-up. Across the sell-side, the consensus target sits at 2.14 kroner — well below current levels. The cautious mood is echoed by developments at peer Thyssenkrupp Nucera, which lowered its outlook in March due to rising costs and project execution issues in the electrolyser segment.
Adding to the risks on Nel’s balance sheet, the company is reviewing the carrying value of two idled production lines at Herøya originally built for atmospheric electrolysers. Whether they are reactivated, shut down, or sold remains to be determined, but a further impairment is possible — coming on top of the 799 million kroner already written off in the 2025 financial year. On the upside, Nel held cash of 1.4 billion kroner at end-March and has a pending €11 million EU grant. The industrialisation of the new alkaline platform is backed by up to €135 million from the EU Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs.
There are glimmers of commercial progress on the margins. In the PEM business, Mesure Process, a European subsidiary of Synqo Energies, placed a second order for containerised units destined for hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial customers. More notably, the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state has become the first public utility to buy and operate a Nel electrolyser itself, using surplus hydropower to produce hydrogen — the plant is scheduled to start up in the first half of 2027.
Nel reports half-year results on 15 July, with management already having booked roughly 70 million kroner in orders for the second quarter. Whether larger projects in the 50 to 150 MW range in Europe and North America reach signing by then will be the critical test. The rally has been built on hope; the next earnings call will reveal whether that hope has any foundation in fact.
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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 24 May
Fresh Nel ASA information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
