Nel ASA's Cheaper Electrolyser and EU Windfall Contrast With a 73% Drop in Orders

Eight years of development and a new pressurised electrolyser that promises to slash capital costs by up to 60% — yet Nel ASA’s shareholders are left nursing a classic case of “buy the rumour, sell the fact.” After a blistering rally that pushed the stock roughly 47% higher year-to-date (some reports peg the gain at 44%), the shares have pulled back about 10% from their recent 52-week high and lost more than 12% in a single week. The reason: a yawning gap between technological promise and commercial traction.

The new pressure alkaline electrolyser, unveiled from Nel’s Herøya facility, targets total installed costs of under $1,450 per kilowatt for large-scale projects — against an industry norm of around $3,000. Delivering hydrogen at 15 bar with high purity, the fully modular, skid-mounted system cuts the need for downstream compression and trims energy consumption. The European Union’s Innovation Fund has backed the industrialisation of this platform with up to €135 million, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs. An initial tranche of €11 million is expected to hit Nel’s books in the second quarter of 2026.

Yet the order book tells a starkly different story. Nel’s first-quarter intake slumped 73% year-on-year to just 85 million Norwegian kroner. Revenue edged down 5% to 148 million kroner, while the EBITDA loss remained stubbornly near 100 million kroner — a 15-million improvement from the prior year, but still deep in the red. Two new PEM contracts worth roughly $7 million each — one from Washington state’s Douglas County Public Utility District, the other from France’s Mesure Process (a Synqo Energies affiliate) — offer a glimmer of hope, but CEO Håkon Volldal has acknowledged that the real prize lies in larger, 50-to-150 megawatt projects he says are under active discussion in Europe and North America. Deliveries, if signed, would come in the second half of 2026.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Analysts remain unimpressed. Berenberg’s James Carmichael trimmed his price target to 2.30 kroner from 2.60, citing persistently weak order intake. The consensus target sits at 2.14 kroner, with the majority of analysts recommending a sell and not a single buy call on the stock. RBC’s “Sector Perform” rating, with a target of 3 kroner, strikes one of the more optimistic notes — but even that implies limited upside from current levels around 0.28 euro.

The broader market is not making life easier. The US rival Plug Power recently posted a 22% jump in revenue and sharply improved margins, reminding investors that Nel faces intense competition for a still-young green hydrogen economy. Meanwhile, the H2med corridor’s BarMar pipeline between Barcelona and southern France — capable of moving up to two million tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually by 2030 — has opened public consultation, highlighting the infrastructure build-out that could eventually underpin demand for electrolysers.

All eyes now turn to July 15, when Nel releases its half-year results. By then, management must show whether those early-stage talks have hardened into binding orders. With 1.4 billion kroner in liquidity expected to last through the end of 2026, the company has runway — but the runway is only meaningful if it leads to take-off.

Ad

Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 12 May

Fresh Nel ASA information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Nel ASA analysis...

en | NO0010081235 | NEL | boerse | 69313520 |