Nel ASA’s Insider Bet and Two New Orders Aim to Counter a Brutal First Quarter

The Norwegian electrolyser maker Nel ASA is living a tale of two realities. Its share price has surged roughly 46% since the start of the year, touching a 52-week high of €0.32 in early May before settling at around €0.28. Yet the underlying business tells a far more sobering story: first-quarter order intake collapsed by 73% to just 85 million kroner, and the order backlog shrank by 24% to 1.11 billion kroner.

Against that backdrop, the company has fired off a pair of fresh signals designed to restore confidence. Chairman Arvid Moss purchased 100,000 shares at an average price of 2.25 kroner — a rare insider move that came just two days after the disappointing quarterly numbers were released. Market watchers typically interpret such purchases as a vote of confidence from those closest to the business.

Two $7 Million Contracts Land Post-Quarter

Nel’s US subsidiary has booked an order worth approximately $7 million from the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state. This marks a first for the company: a public utility buying and operating a green hydrogen plant from Nel. The facility, which will use excess hydropower to produce hydrogen, is scheduled to begin operations in the first half of 2027.

Almost simultaneously, a second $7 million contract came in from Mesure Process, which ordered containerised PEM units for a European project. Those units will supply hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial customers.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The two deals provide a critical counterweight to the first-quarter order drought. They also signal that Nel is beginning to diversify its customer base beyond traditional industrial buyers.

New Alkali Platform Goes Commercial

On May 6, Nel launched commercial sales of its new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform, the culmination of eight years of development. The system targets projects in the 50-to-150-megawatt range and aims to deliver turnkey costs below $1,450 per kilowatt for a 25 MW plant.

Production at Nel’s Herøya facility in Norway is starting with an annual capacity of one gigawatt, with plans already drawn up to scale that to four gigawatts. The EU Innovation Fund is backing the industrialisation push with up to €135 million in grants.

The platform is designed to simplify hydrogen projects and reduce costs — a critical selling point in an industry where capital expenditure remains a major barrier to adoption.

Financial Position Holds, But Analysts Stay Sceptical

Nel ended the first quarter with 1.4 billion kroner in liquid assets, which management says is sufficient to fund operations through the end of 2026. The net loss narrowed to 144 million kroner, while headcount has been cut by 26% from its peak, helping to stabilise the cost base. Revenue from customer contracts slipped 5% to 148 million kroner, and EBITDA remained negative at minus 100 million kroner — though that was a 15 million kroner improvement year-on-year.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Despite the share price rally, the analyst community remains deeply cautious. Berenberg’s James Carmichael holds a neutral rating and trimmed his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner, citing persistently weak order flow. Not a single analyst covering Nel currently recommends buying the stock. The average price target stands at 2.14 kroner, with a majority advising sell.

What Comes Next

The broader hydrogen sector has been lifted by tailwinds from elsewhere. Bloom Energy’s first-quarter revenue doubled to $751 million, driven by AI data centre demand, while ITM Power secured a partnership with Rheinmetall and Plug Power jumped 12% in a single session. Nel has been carried along by that wave.

But the company’s own fundamentals remain under scrutiny. The new alkaline platform and the PEM business must now convert interest into hard orders. Nel will publish its first-half results on July 15, and by then the market will want to see whether the May product launch and the two recent contracts mark the beginning of a genuine turnaround — or just a temporary reprieve.

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