Nel ASA’s Insider Vote of Confidence Clashes With a 73% Order Collapse

The boardroom and the trading floor are sending sharply different signals about Nel ASA’s prospects. Chairman Arvid Moss just scooped up 100,000 shares, a personal bet that the Norwegian hydrogen company’s turnaround story has legs. Yet the first-quarter numbers paint a far grimmer picture — one that has left every single analyst on the sidelines.

The stock has been on a tear regardless, surging roughly 35% over the past month to trade at €0.26, not far off its year-to-date gain of 39%. The rally has been fuelled by a new technology platform and a pair of post-quarter contract wins, but the underlying financials offer little support for the optimism.

A brutal quarter masked by a new dawn

Nel’s order intake collapsed 73% year-on-year in the first quarter, landing at just 85 million Norwegian kroner. The order backlog shrank to 1.11 billion kroner. Revenue from customer contracts edged down to 148 million kroner, while the EBITDA loss improved only marginally to minus 100 million kroner.

The company has already slashed roughly a quarter of its workforce to stabilise costs. Cash reserves of 1.4 billion kroner provide a runway through to the end of 2026, according to management.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Against that backdrop, the board chairman’s decision to buy 100,000 shares looks like a calculated wager on the future rather than a reflection of the present.

A new platform promises a step-change in costs

Nel has just launched a new generation of pressurised alkaline electrolysers, produced at its Herøya facility where annual capacity stands at up to one gigawatt. The company claims the platform can cut capital expenditure on hydrogen production by 40% to 60%.

That technological leap, combined with fresh orders for its PEM division, has been the primary driver of the stock’s recent ascent. Shortly after the quarter closed, Nel secured two contracts each worth roughly $7 million. A US utility ordered equipment for delivery in the first half of 2027, while European company Mesure Process placed an order for hydrogen refuelling station units.

EU cash and analyst caution

Brussels is also providing a tailwind. Nel expects an €11 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund in the second quarter, part of a broader allocation of up to €135 million to support the company’s scaling efforts.

Yet the analyst community remains unconvinced. Not a single analyst currently rates the stock a buy, with the majority recommending a sell. Berenberg’s James Carmichael recently trimmed his price target to 2.30 kroner, pointing to persistently weak order flow. The consensus target sits at 2.14 kroner.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The July test

Management is currently negotiating further projects in Europe and North America. The half-year results, due on 15 July, will be the first real test of whether the new platform can convert interest into binding contracts. CEO Håkon Volldal must demonstrate that the technology can attract the large-scale orders needed to justify the stock’s elevated valuation.

Without those contracts, the gap between boardroom confidence and market reality may prove unsustainable.

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