Nel ASA's Rally Defies Reality: Orders Tumble 73% as New Platform Seeks Buyers
24.05.2026 - 15:34:06 | boerse-global.de
Nel ASA’s share price hit a fresh 52-week high of €0.33 on Friday, capping a 13.89% one-day surge and bringing year-to-date gains to 71%. But beneath the surface of that eye-catching rally lies a starkly different picture: order intake collapsed 73% in the first quarter of 2026 to just 85 million Norwegian kroner, and the backlog shrank 24% to 1.113 billion kroner. The contradiction between market euphoria and commercial headwinds has never been starker.
The catalyst for the latest leg up was the May launch of Nel’s next-generation pressurized alkaline electrolyzer platform, tested at full scale at its Herøya facility in Norway. The company claims total system costs for a 25-megawatt installation will come in at under $1,450 per kilowatt — a figure that, if realised, would make alkaline electrolysis significantly more competitive. But translating that engineering milestone into actual sales remains a challenge. Chief executive Håkon Volldal has signalled he expects more final investment decisions this year than last, yet no large-scale contracts have materialised to back up the optimism.
Analysts, meanwhile, are running for cover. Berenberg’s James Carmichael trimmed his price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner, while Citigroup cut from 2.70 to 2.40 kroner. Both houses retained neutral ratings. The consensus sits at 2.14 kroner — roughly €0.19, or more than 40% below the current share price. That puts Nel some 40% above the highest analyst estimate, a metric that has some technical observers warning of a “momentum trap” where speculative buying detaches the stock from fundamentals.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
One notable vote of confidence has come from inside the boardroom. Chairman Arvid Moss bought 100,000 shares in April at an average price of €0.22, well before the current rally took hold. That insider purchase, combined with the 60% premium above the 200-day moving average, suggests the stock has powerful technical momentum. But the question is whether it can hold above key support around €0.30; a slip below that level could trigger a retreat back toward analyst price targets.
On the operational front, there are glimmers of progress in Nel’s PEM division. Mesure Process, a European arm of Synqo Energies, placed a repeat order for containerized units destined for hydrogen refuelling and industrial customers. And in the US, the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington state bought a Nel electrolyzer — the first time a public utility has opted to own and operate the equipment itself. That unit will run on surplus hydropower and is slated for commissioning in the first half of 2027.
Elsewhere, a potential €135 million contribution from the EU Innovation Fund — covering up to 60% of eligible costs for industrialising the new alkaline platform — provides a financial cushion. Nel ended the first quarter with 1.4 billion kroner in cash and expects an additional €11 million in EU grants. Still, the company is grappling with the idle assets at Herøya: two production lines originally built for atmospheric electrolyzers remain mothballed, and Nel is weighing whether to restart, sell or scrap them. Impairment risks are real after already booking 799 million kroner in writedowns during the 2025 financial year.
The broader sector remains under pressure. Thyssenkrupp Nucera lowered its guidance in March, citing rising costs and project delays in electrolysis. Nel is not immune to those forces. All eyes now turn to July 15, when the company releases half-year results. Management has already booked roughly 70 million kroner in second-quarter orders, but the market will be looking for signs that the 50-to-150-megawatt projects under evaluation in Europe and North America can finally be converted into binding contracts. Without that, the rally’s foundation will remain thin.
Ad
Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 24 May
Fresh Nel ASA information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
