Novo Nordisk’s Pill Push Eases the Pain, but the Generics Are Already Circling

Novo Nordisk’s shareholders have endured a bruising year, with the stock down roughly 35% from its 12-month peak. But this week brought a measure of relief. The Danish pharma giant delivered first-quarter numbers that beat analyst expectations, raised its full-year guidance, and rolled out a long-awaited oral version of Ozempic across the United States.

The headline figures were striking. Unadjusted revenue hit 96.82 billion Danish kroner, while net profit surged 67% to 48.56 billion kroner. Operating profit jumped 65%. Yet those numbers are flattered by the release of multi-billion-dollar provisions in the US business. Strip those out, and adjusted revenue fell 4% on a currency-adjusted basis, with US adjusted revenue dropping 11% as price competition intensified.

Management now expects a currency-adjusted decline in both sales and operating profit of between 4% and 12% for the full year, a narrower range than the previous forecast of up to 13%. Analysts at Morgan Stanley called the new outlook conservative. Jefferies was less impressed, noting that Novo had failed to lift the lower end of the range more aggressively.

The stock still found buyers. In Copenhagen, shares jumped as much as 9.2% on the day. In German trading, the stock closed at €39.09, putting it on track for a monthly gain of nearly 23%. But the longer-term picture remains grim: the shares are still deep in the red over 12 months.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

A Pill That’s Already Finding Its Feet

The commercial highlight of the quarter was the US launch of an oral tablet form of Ozempic. Since early May, the drug has been available across more than 70,000 pharmacies nationwide. The move had spooked some investors, who feared the pill would cannibalise sales of the more profitable injectable pens.

CEO Mike Doustdar pushed back hard during the earnings call. He pointed to double-digit growth rates for the tablet and stressed that existing patients were showing little appetite to switch. The numbers back him up: more than one million people are now using the oral version of Wegovy, and 80% of them are new to GLP-1 drugs entirely, having previously rejected injections.

The pricing strategy is aggressive. Novo is offering the oral drug at $149 per month in the US, a direct response to Eli Lilly’s new obesity treatment Foundayo. The tactic appears to be working, at least in the short term. Obesity segment sales overall grew 22% in the quarter.

Pipeline Progress and a Coming Test

Regulatory wins also bolstered the narrative. The FDA and European regulators approved a high-dose version of Wegovy, which helped patients lose an average of 20.7% of their body weight in clinical trials. The weekly basal insulin Awiqli also secured US approval. In rare diseases, the experimental drug Etavopivat hit all primary endpoints in a Phase 2 trial.

But the competitive landscape is shifting. In India, generic versions of semaglutide hit the market in the first quarter, and the pricing pressure is expected to spread. Novo Nordisk spent 22.4 billion kroner on research and development in the first three months, while returning 37.7 billion kroner to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The next catalyst is just days away. From May 12 to 15, the company will present new clinical data at the European Congress on Obesity in Istanbul. Investors will be watching closely for signs that the next generation of drugs can maintain Novo’s edge.

The real test, however, comes in the second half of 2026, when the oral obesity pill is set for a global rollout. By then, the generic threat will have grown, and Eli Lilly will have had more time to establish Foundayo. For now, Novo Nordisk has bought itself some breathing room. Whether it can turn that into lasting momentum is the question that will define the next chapter.

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