Oppenheimer Boosts Almonty Target to $25 as First Positive EBITDA and Russell 1000 Entry Reshape Junior Miner
04.06.2026 - 05:32:08 | boerse-global.de
The tungsten market is undergoing a structural realignment. New U.S. defense procurement rules set to take effect on January 1, 2027, will ban tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea in certain supply chains. Against that backdrop, Almonty Industries is racing to scale its South Korean Sangdong mine, which it expects to serve roughly 40% of non-Chinese global demand. The company now has the financial results and corporate milestones to back up its ambitions.
First-quarter results released in late May showed revenue surging 221% year over year to $25.4 million, driven by higher spot tungsten concentrate prices and strong output from the Panasqueira mine. Net losses narrowed sharply from $34.6 million to $5.3 million. More notably, adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time at $6.1 million, and operating cash flow came in at $9.7 million. The balance sheet holds about $260 million in liquidity.
That financial inflection has caught the attention of sell-side analysts. Oppenheimer lifted its price target on Almonty from $22 to $25 per share and reiterated an "Outperform" rating. For the current fiscal year, analysts project earnings per share of $0.30, marking the company's first move into profitability after a prolonged investment cycle. The stock itself has surged more than 137% year to date and trades at C$28.53, roughly 7.7% above its 50-day moving average.
The operational engine behind the optimism is Sangdong. Phase 1 of the mine, completed in March 2026, has a capacity of about 640,000 tonnes of ore per year and tungsten concentrate production of roughly 2,300 tonnes. In June 2026, the facility will deliver its first meaningful operating data, followed by a ramp-up to full Phase 1 capacity in July. Management is already preparing plans for Phase 2, which would roughly double throughput. In Montana, the Gentung Browns Lake Tungsten Project is expected to be production-ready in the second half of 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
To support the transition from project developer to institutional producer, Almonty brought in Jorge Beristain as chief financial officer on June 1. Beristain, a CFA charterholder, previously served as vice president of finance at Ryerson Holding Corp., a metals distributor with roughly $5 billion in revenue, and earlier headed Americas metals and mining research at Deutsche Bank Securities. His appointment signals the company's intent to deepen its capital markets presence.
Governance moves are also in play. Shareholder votes for the annual meeting on June 9 had to be submitted by June 5. The board is unanimously recommending the re-election of all seven director nominees. Proxy advisory firm Sodali & Co. has been retained. Immediately after the meeting, Beristain will hold his first public communications as CFO, which investors will scrutinize for guidance on closing the gap between the current stock price and the 52-week high of C$33.35.
Another institutional catalyst arrives on June 29, when Almonty is set to join the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indexes. Index inclusion typically drives passive fund buying and raises visibility among active managers. Combined with the imminent Sangdong ramp-up, the Pentagon deadline, and the strengthened finance team, Almonty is entering a period that could define its next phase of growth.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The shares currently sit about 16% below their 52-week high but are more than 70% above their 200-day average — a sign that the market has already priced in significant near-term expectations. With Phase 2, rising tungsten prices, and a potential share buyback program on the table, the coming weeks will test whether the operational execution can match the stock's momentum.
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