Palantir’s US Commercial Revenue Jumps 133% in Q1, but Valuation Overhang Keeps the Stock in Check
27.05.2026 - 07:52:11 | boerse-global.de
The data-analytics specialist delivered a blockbuster first quarter, yet its shares remain stuck in neutral. After a six-day winning streak, Palantir edged down 0.6% on Tuesday, and by Wednesday the stock was trading at €117.42 — roughly 18% below its level at the start of the year. The disconnect between operational momentum and market reception highlights a growing tug-of-war: investors are impressed by the enterprise-AI boom but increasingly wary of the price they are paying for it.
Revenue hit $1.633 billion in the first quarter of 2026, an 85% surge from a year earlier. The US commercial segment, powered by the AIP platform, grew 133%. GAAP operating profit came in at $754 million, while adjusted free cash flow reached $925 million. Palantir’s adjusted margin of 60% and its “Rule of 40” score of 145% place it among the most efficient names in software — a rare combination of hypergrowth and profitability.
Management responded by lifting its full-year outlook. Palantir now expects 2026 revenue between $7.65 billion and $7.66 billion, with the US commercial arm on track to expand by at least 120%. The remaining performance obligation swelled 98% to $11.8 billion, and new bookings reached $1.2 billion in the quarter alone.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Palantir?
Yet the market is demanding more than just strong numbers. Palantir carries a price-to-earnings multiple north of 100 on a forward basis and roughly 153 on trailing earnings, giving it a market capitalisation of about $327 billion. The relative strength index sits at 82.4, deep in overbought territory following the recent rebound. The stock now trades about 15% below its 200-day moving average of €138.54 and more than a third off its 52-week high of €179.86.
The valuation debate is fuelled by legitimate risks flagged in the company’s own filings. Large contracts are subject to long and unpredictable sales cycles, with a significant portion of revenue typically recognised only in the final weeks of a quarter. Meanwhile, Palantir’s increasing integration of AI into its platforms exposes it to evolving regulatory and security-related hurdles, adding another layer of uncertainty to margin forecasting.
Looking ahead, two catalysts could reset the narrative. The upcoming quarterly report for Q2, expected in early August, will test whether Palantir can sustain its raised guidance, particularly the 120% growth target in US commercial. Beyond that, a potential initial public offering by AI rival Anthropic could set fresh valuation benchmarks for the sector, and a multibillion-dollar modernisation contract from the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency — where Palantir is navigating regulatory roadblocks — remains a wild card. Against this backdrop, institutional investors such as Bleakley Financial Group have added to their positions, boosting holdings by 29% to roughly 90,000 shares. But the stock’s next move will depend on whether the commercial engine can keep revving at a pace that justifies the price tag.
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