Plug Power’s Turnaround Gains Momentum, but Hormuz Tensions Cloud International Ambitions

It is a story of two opposing forces at Plug Power right now. The hydrogen specialist delivered a first-quarter earnings beat that has analysts scrambling to raise price targets, while simultaneously disclosing a fresh geopolitical headache that threatens to snarl its global supply chain. The stock has more than tripled over the past twelve months, but the path to sustained profitability is getting more complicated.

Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 came in at $163.5 million, up 22% year-over-year and well ahead of the consensus estimate of roughly $140 million. The adjusted loss per share narrowed to minus $0.08, halving from a year earlier and also beating expectations. Gross margin improved dramatically, swinging from minus 55% to minus 13% – a 42 percentage-point gain driven by lower service costs on GenDrive units, which fell by more than 30%, and a 54-percentage-point improvement in the hydrogen fuel margin. The material-handling business continued to benefit from deep ties with Walmart and Amazon, while electrolyzer solutions also contributed to the top line.

The strong print triggered a flurry of upward target revisions, though conviction remains uneven. Susquehanna lifted its price target from $2.75 to $3.75, Canaccord to $4.00, TD Cowen to $3.00, and B. Riley to $5.00. All cited margin progress from the “Project Quantum Leap” cost program and the anticipated $275 million in asset-sale proceeds – including $142 million from the sale of Stream Data Centers, expected to close in June 2026. Yet both Susquehanna and Canaccord kept their neutral ratings, and BMO Capital Markets maintained an “Underperform” with a $1.20 target. Full-throated bullishness is still in short supply.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?

Liquidity stood at over $800 million at quarter-end, of which roughly $579 million is restricted and slated for gradual release. Operating cash burn for the period was $150 million, while the accumulated deficit reached $8.2 billion. Management aims to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2026 and turn net-profitable by 2028. To get there, it is banking on asset sales and continued cost discipline.

But a new risk has entered the picture. Plug Power disclosed that escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt its international supply chains. The company runs electrolyzer projects in Portugal, Spain, Canada and Uzbekistan, and any delay in material deliveries would slow its overseas expansion. That geopolitical overhang adds another layer of uncertainty to an already ambitious turnaround timeline.

The stock gained roughly 10% on the day of the Q1 release and is up nearly 75% since the start of the year. On a twelve-month view, the advance has been even more striking – over 300%, with shares trading around €3.07. The next major test comes in autumn, when the EBITDA target falls due. If the Hormuz risk stays contained and the asset-sale pipeline holds firm, Plug Power’s attempt to shift from cash-burn to cash-flow may finally gain credibility.

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Plug Power Stock: New Analysis - 13 May

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