Political Fire and Record Profits Collide as Commerzbank Battles UniCredit
13.05.2026 - 15:44:54 | boerse-global.de
The fight for control of Commerzbank is escalating on multiple fronts. European Central Bank Vice-President Luis de Guindos has openly criticised Berlin's resistance to UniCredit’s advance, branding the German government’s stance an infringement on the single market. The rebuke, coming just days before the bank’s annual general meeting, adds a sharp political dimension to an already fraught battle.
The political noise, however, does little to distract from the lender’s underlying strength. Commerzbank posted an operating result of around €1.36bn in the first quarter of 2026, with net income of €913m. Management is betting that these numbers will persuade shareholders that independence is the more lucrative path. The board is targeting a return on tangible equity of 21% by 2030, and has set a minimum full-year profit of €3.4bn for 2026. To get there, it plans to channel roughly €600m into artificial intelligence between 2026 and 2030 — a bet on technology to drive future margins.
UniCredit’s offer, meanwhile, remains firmly below the market price. The Italian banking group is offering 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, valuing the offer at around €31.07 per share. Commerzbank stock traded at €35.65 on Wednesday, a loss of 0.50% on the day, but still well above the bid level. The gap reflects deep scepticism among investors that the current proposal will succeed.
Andrea Orcel, UniCredit’s chief executive, is not expecting to gain outright control through this tender. Instead, he aims to push his holding above the 30% threshold — a level at which Italian law would no longer require a mandatory takeover offer. The EZB has already approved UniCredit’s buildup of a roughly 30% stake through a mix of direct purchases and financial instruments. The next regulatory gate is the Bundeskartellamt, Germany’s competition authority. If that approval comes through, Berlin will lose its last formal veto.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Commerzbank’s management is fighting back on two fronts: the board is due to publish its formal opinion under the German Securities Acquisition and Takeover Act later this week. It is expected to urge rejection, citing the vagueness of UniCredit’s plans and the risks of execution. The bank has also launched a cost-cutting drive, announcing 3,000 additional job reductions, and is using its buyback programme to shrink the free float — a tactic that could push UniCredit’s percentage stake higher without the Italians lifting a finger.
Technical signals are flashing a warning for momentum traders. The relative strength index stands at 86.1, deep in overbought territory. Over the past twelve months the stock has climbed nearly 38%, a rally fuelled partly by takeover speculation.
All eyes will now turn to the annual general meeting on 20 May. The board is proposing a dividend of €1.10 per share, up from €0.65 a year earlier, alongside a new share buyback authorisation covering up to 10% of the share capital. Since September 2025, the bank has returned roughly €1.5bn to shareholders via completed programmes.
Commerzbank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The acceptance period for UniCredit’s offer is expected to run until 3 July 2026, with a closing anticipated only in 2027 due to pending regulatory approvals. Until then, the stock remains caught between takeover fantasy, valuation reality, and a management team determined to prove that going it alone is the better deal.
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