Rheinmetall Eyes €1bn Bundeswehr Truck Deal as Barclays Sticks to 2035 Euro Target Despite Q1 Setback
21.05.2026 - 13:02:49 | boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall is navigating a curious disconnect. While its share price remains under pressure from a sluggish first quarter and a bearish chart, the pipeline of order flow continues to thicken. A pending military-truck contract worth over a billion euros and a reaffirmed analyst target of 2,035 euro are injecting fresh debate into the stock’s prospects.
The German defence group is on the cusp of winning a large logistics contract from the Bundeswehr. According to reports, Berlin plans to order 2,030 heavy trucks from the Rheinmetall MAN joint venture, with a total volume exceeding one billion euros. Such an order would underpin the company’s military logistics division at a time when European armies are scrambling to expand transport capacity alongside their combat capabilities.
That operational catalyst arrives as the stock tries to recover from a bruising start to 2026. Rheinmetall shares closed Wednesday at 1,240 euro — up eight percent week-on-week — but remain 23 percent below their level at the turn of the year. The stock changed hands at 1,229.40 euro on Thursday, a fractional decline.
Q1 miss sets the bar high for second quarter
The weak performance is rooted in first-quarter figures that fell short of analyst expectations. Revenue reached 1.94 billion euro, an eight percent year-on-year increase but well below the 2.3 billion euro consensus. The shortfall was attributed to delivery delays on military trucks and ammunition, compounded by a production accident at Rheinmetall’s Spanish plant in Murcia.
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Barclays, however, sees the dip as temporary. Analyst Afonso Osorio reiterated his “Overweight” rating and 2,035 euro price target, arguing the structural growth story remains intact. For full-year 2026, the bank forecasts an operating profit jump of 45 percent — more than double the sector average of 19 percent. Rheinmetall must now deliver a strong second quarter to validate that confidence.
€500m bond and state backing reshape the landscape
To fuel its expansion, Rheinmetall is tapping capital markets for the first time since 2010. The company plans to issue an unsecured bond worth 500 million euro, underscoring the scale of its investment needs. The move comes as the German government prepares to take a 40 percent stake in tank maker KNDS, a rival and partner to Rheinmetall in programmes such as the Leopard 2. The government’s eventual stake is expected to drop to 30 percent.
For Rheinmetall, KNDS is both a competitor and a potential beneficiary of stabilised procurement processes. The political dimension is sharpened by Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s proposal to grant Ukraine an “associate membership” status within the EU, a step that signals sustained demand for defence hardware.
Technical signals flash warning signs
Chart watchers have been given mixed messages. The stock triggered a MACD long signal on Thursday, supporting the recent recovery. Yet the gap to key moving averages remains wide: the share trades 13.33 percent below its 50-day average and 25.34 percent below the 200-day line. The relative strength index stands at 87.8, indicating the short-term bounce is already stretched.
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UBS analyst Sven Weier is constructive but more cautious, cutting his price target to 1,600 euro while highlighting growth potential in ammunition beyond 2026 and the importance of the Boxer armoured vehicle. From his perspective, the market has not yet fully priced in those longer-term drivers.
Execution is the key variable
What makes Rheinmetall’s story compelling is the tension between incoming demand and past performance. The potential Bundeswehr contract is a concrete sign that political rhetoric is translating into purchase orders. But investors are now watching operational cash flow and the ability to work through a record order backlog of roughly 73 billion euro. The second-quarter numbers will be a critical test of whether the company can turn its fat pipeline into the earnings growth that Barclays and others are betting on.
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