Rocket Lab Rallies on Overweight Upgrade and Nasdaq-100 Inclusion After SpaceX-Led Selloff
16.06.2026 - 02:03:15 | boerse-global.de
Rocket Lab shares bounced back sharply on Monday, gaining nearly 7% to hit EUR 94.90, as a bullish analyst call and the imminent addition to the Nasdaq-100 offset the capital drain triggered by SpaceX's blockbuster IPO.
The recovery came after a bruising end to last week, when the stock slumped almost 11% on Friday to EUR 88.70. Market participants had rotated funds into SpaceX's US$75 billion public debut, punishing a range of smaller space names. KeyBanc Capital Markets dismissed that move as misguided.
Analyst Upgrade Triggers Bounce
KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock lifted his rating on Rocket Lab from "Sector Weight" to "Overweight" and set a price target of US$135 — implying roughly 40% upside from the level at the time. The call reflects conviction that the fundamental drivers underpinning Rocket Lab's growth remain intact, despite the temporary outflow of speculative capital.
Leshock pointed to the highest level of NASA activity since the Apollo era, a surge in satellite demand, and persistent global constraints on launch capacity. That structural scarcity, he argued, positions Rocket Lab to capture outsized market share.
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Record Revenue and a Swelling Backlog
Rocket Lab's first-quarter results provide solid support for the upgrade. Revenue came in at US$200 million, up 63% year-on-year and ahead of analyst expectations. The order backlog more than doubled sequentially to a record US$2.2 billion.
The company also highlighted that five new contracts for its upcoming Neutron rocket had been signed, underscoring confidence in a vehicle designed to compete directly with SpaceX's Falcon 9 in the medium-lift segment. Neutron's first flight is scheduled for 2026, after a technical anomaly discovered in January was resolved.
Index Inclusion Creates Automatic Demand
A concrete near-term catalyst is already locked in. On 22 June, Rocket Lab will officially join the Nasdaq-100, the index tracking the largest non-financial companies on the exchange. Passive funds and ETFs, including the massive Invesco QQQ, will be forced to buy the stock — a mechanical demand driver that could sustain upward momentum through the end of the week.
The index inclusion comes at a time when the shares are still trading roughly 29% below their all-time high of EUR 133.80, reached in May. With the stock's relative strength index hovering around 47 — neutral territory — technical analysts see room for further recovery.
Operational Momentum Points Higher
Rocket Lab is also accelerating its launch cadence. The company's New Zealand hangar is currently holding the largest inventory of ready-to-launch Electron rockets in its history, with multiple missions lined up in rapid succession.
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The combination of a steady stream of launches, a growing backlog, and the upcoming Neutron debut is drawing support from other houses as well. Stifel maintains a price target of US$132, echoing the view that Rocket Lab is benefiting from structural tailwinds that the SpaceX IPO rotation cannot erase.
For now, the immediate focus is on the 22 June index change. If the operational momentum holds and the Neutron first flight proceeds as planned, the old highs may soon come back into reach.
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