Rocket Lab's $2.2 Billion Backlog Stands Tall as Sector Sentiment Bows to SpaceX Index Exclusion
05.06.2026 - 17:46:33 | boerse-global.de
Rocket Lab's share price has taken a beating this week, but the damage has come from sector-wide headwinds rather than any operational stumble. The stock slid to around €100.40, roughly 25% below its 52-week high from May 27, as investors recalibrated expectations around SpaceX's upcoming listing. On a weekly basis, the decline clocked in at nearly 17%, wiping out a chunk of the year's impressive gains — though the equity still trades up more than 54% year to date.
The trigger was an S&P Dow Jones Indices decision on June 4 that denied SpaceX rapid entry into the S&P 500. The index provider cited the company's GAAP unprofitability: SpaceX reported a net loss of roughly $5 billion on revenue of about $18.7 billion in 2025. Under the new proposal, newly listed companies must trade for at least twelve months before becoming eligible for inclusion — a rule that would also apply to any other high-profile IPO. That shot a hole through the thesis that a public SpaceX would immediately lift valuations across the space infrastructure sector, Rocket Lab included.
Yet beneath the market noise, the company's operating metrics tell a far more buoyant story. Rocket Lab's first-quarter revenue hit a record $200.3 million, up 63.5% from the same period last year. Management has guided for second-quarter sales between $225 million and $240 million. The order book now stands at $2.2 billion — more than double the level a year ago — and during Q1 alone the firm signed more new launch contracts than it did in all of 2025. Those include a framework agreement covering five Neutron and three Electron missions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
The backlog has been bolstered further by Rocket Lab's recent acquisition of Motiv Space Systems, a specialist in robotics whose technology has flown on NASA Mars missions. That deal extends the company's value chain beyond pure launch services into space systems, a segment that analyst Erik Rasmussen of Stifel sees as a key differentiator. On June 4, Rasmussen raised his price target from $110 to $132, the highest on the Street, citing strong momentum in both launch and space systems. He pointed to the Electron rocket's improving margin profile, aided by HASTE suborbital missions that command higher prices.
On the product development front, there are both delays and near-term catalysts. The Neutron rocket's maiden flight has slipped to the fourth quarter of 2026 after a crack was discovered in the first-stage tank — a setback but not a fundamental reset for a company that is effectively doubling its revenue. Meanwhile, a suborbital test flight under the HASTE program, dubbed "Curveball," is scheduled for June 10 from Rocket Lab's Launch Complex 2 on Wallops Island, Virginia, on behalf of a government agency. And earlier this month, the company passed the System Requirements Review for the Space Development Agency's Tranche 3 tracking-layer constellation — a crucial milestone on the path to becoming a prime contractor for national security satellites.
The financials still show a loss, though a narrowing one. Rocket Lab posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in Q1, a figure that the market is willing to look past given the growth trajectory. The stock's technical position remains constructive: it trades 22% above its 50-day moving average and 66% above the 200-day, while the relative strength index at 50.7 signals that the earlier overbought condition has cooled.
The next major test will come with the Q2 earnings report. If Rocket Lab delivers on its guidance of up to $240 million in revenue, the recent sell-off will likely be viewed as a sector-driven correction rather than a re-rating of the company's underlying story. All eyes will also remain on SpaceX's expected Nasdaq debut under the ticker SPCX on June 12, 2026 — and on whether that event can reignite the sector-wide enthusiasm that briefly swept through space stocks earlier this year. For Rocket Lab, the operational path forward is clear: execute on the Neutron development, scale the space systems business, and convert a $2.2 billion backlog into cash-flow-positive operations.
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