Rocket Lab’s Index Inclusion Turns Into a Heavy Sell-Off as SpaceX IPO Drains Sector Capital
13.06.2026 - 18:56:00 | boerse-global.de
Getting added to the Nasdaq-100 is usually a reason to pop the champagne. For Rocket Lab, the celebration lasted only a few hours. Shares closed the week at €88.70 on Friday after plunging nearly 11% in a single session, wiping out all gains triggered by the index announcement earlier in the week.
The company confirmed on June 12 that it would join the Nasdaq-100, effective June 23, 2026. CEO Sir Peter Beck called it a “historic moment.” Pre-market trading saw the stock surge more than 8% as speculators piled in, betting on forced buying by index-tracking funds. But that enthusiasm evaporated within minutes of the opening bell as early buyers locked in profits — a classic “sell the news” pattern.
The SpaceX IPO Magnifies the Rotation
The real weight on Rocket Lab’s shares, however, came from the long-awaited initial public offering of SpaceX. The Elon Musk-led company targeted a valuation of $1.75 trillion, offering shares at $135 each in a deal worth roughly $75 billion. Until SpaceX shares actually hit the market, many investors had used Rocket Lab as a proxy for the space sector. With the real thing now available, capital rotated out en masse.
Rocket Lab’s nearly 10% drop on Friday was actually one of the milder reactions in the space pack. Virgin Galactic cratered 24%, Intuitive Machines sank 15%, and Redwire lost 14%. The broad-based sell-off underscores how deeply the SpaceX IPO is reshaping liquidity flows across the industry.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
Strong Fundamentals, but Losses Persist
Operationally, Rocket Lab’s story remains compelling. First-quarter revenue hit $200.35 million, up 63.5% from a year earlier and well above analyst estimates. The order backlog doubled to $2.2 billion, and the company signed 31 new Electron and HASTE contracts in the first quarter alone — more than in all of last year. For the current quarter, management guided for revenue between $225 million and $240 million.
Yet profitability remains elusive. Heavy spending on the development of the Neutron rocket and expansion of the space systems business are widening EBITDA losses. That earnings drag, combined with a market capitalization of nearly $69 billion, leaves the stock vulnerable to any shift in sentiment.
Insider Sales Add to the Gloom
A steady drumbeat of insider selling has not helped. Four executives unloaded about $18 million worth of shares in the wake of the rally, pushing the three-month insider sales total to roughly $67.7 million. Director Alexander Slusky was the most conspicuous, selling $9 million in late May when the stock was trading near its all-time high. While insider sales are not automatically alarming, they weigh on psychology for a stock that already trades well above most price targets.
Rocket Lab at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Analysts, however, remain broadly bullish. Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen recently raised his target to $132 and reiterated his buy rating, and all 16 analysts covering the stock have it rated a buy. The 52-week high stands at €133.80, meaning the current price is about 34% below that peak — and only a whisker above the 50-day moving average of €87.42. A break below that support level could trigger further downside.
Index Buying vs. Sector Rotation
Rocket Lab’s official inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on June 22 will force index funds to accumulate the stock, providing a structural bid. Whether that buying can offset the gravitational pull of the SpaceX IPO depends on how much capital remains locked in Elon Musk’s rocket company. For now, the market is betting that the rotation has further to run.
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