SAP’s Cloud Clearance Can’t Dispel the Doubt Over Margins and Security Risks
10.06.2026 - 18:25:33 | boerse-global.de
Shares in SAP are trading perilously close to their 52-week low after a turbulent session that saw the stock give up 3.7% to close at €149.56. The decline puts the software giant just 11% above the yearly floor of €135.52 struck in May, while the 200-day moving average of €188.50 sits more than 20% above the current price. Since January, the equity has lost roughly a quarter of its value — a stark reversal from the euphoria that carried it to a 52-week high of €266.25 a year ago.
The immediate trigger for Wednesday’s selloff was a fresh round of critical security patches. SAP disclosed 15 vulnerabilities across systems including NetWeaver and the Commerce Cloud, four of which require urgent updates. The most severe, CVE-2026-44748, carries a CVSS score of 9.9 and allows XML manipulation in the SAML authentication process. Another, CVE-2026-27671 (score 9.8), enables memory corruption in the ABAP kernel without any authentication. The remaining two — a Spring Security flaw in the Commerce Cloud (9.1) and a path-traversal attack in NetWeaver Java (9.0) — add to the sense of urgency. Hackers could potentially take over systems or siphon sensitive data, leaving customers scrambling to apply fixes.
Yet these security headaches are only part of the story. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its gross margin forecast for SAP’s second half of 2026 to 72.8% from 73.3%, citing rising hardware costs tied to building out computing capacity for artificial intelligence. The EBIT growth projection was trimmed to roughly 15% from about 16%. The revision may seem modest, but in a market hypersensitive to profit pressure, it reinforced fears that the AI transition comes with a heavy upfront price tag. US tech giants alone are expected to pump over $700 billion into AI infrastructure next year, and while that is a boon for chipmakers, it forces software companies to spend heavily simply to keep pace.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Despite the bearish sentiment, SAP notched a strategic win that barely registered with investors. Germany’s Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) granted the company approval to process classified information at the VS-NfD level — an official secrecy grade for non-classified but sensitive government data — on its own cloud infrastructure in Walldorf. The certification, which took about twelve months to obtain, makes SAP the only provider whose platform can support both its own applications and custom client workloads in a VS-NfD-compliant environment. This effectively opens the door to government and critical-industry contracts where digital sovereignty is paramount — a moat that rivals cannot quickly replicate.
Operationally, SAP also pointed to a successful S/4HANA migration at a leading automotive supplier, underscoring that the core business is functioning. Cloud backlog grew to €21.9 billion in the first quarter, up 25% currency-adjusted, while cloud revenue itself rose 27%. The company’s “Autonomous Enterprise Suite” and more than 50 AI assistants, including the Joule chatbot, outline a clear technological direction. What the market is demanding, however, is proof that those investments will generate returns.
On the regulatory front, an EU competition probe into whether SAP disadvantaged third-party maintenance providers remains a lingering overhang. Management has offered customers greater choice in support providers, and if no objections are raised, the case will be closed without a fine. The company expects no financial impact from the concessions.
For now, the stock is clinging to its 50-day average of €149.56 — a level that will serve as a critical technical test. The broader picture is one of contrasts: a secure cloud moat and solid cloud growth competing with margin compression, security vulnerabilities, and a market that wants tangible evidence that the AI era will actually boost profitability. The next quarterly report will need to deliver hard numbers, not just ambitions.
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SAP Stock: New Analysis - 10 June
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