Scottish Mortgage's High-Stakes SpaceX Bet Faces Its Moment of Truth as IPO Approaches
11.06.2026 - 18:14:50 | boerse-global.de
The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust is navigating one of the most concentrated periods of its modern history. Over the past three days, the fund has simultaneously executed a share buyback, gone ex-dividend, and watched its largest holding prepare for a public listing that could reshape the portfolio's entire risk profile. The SpaceX IPO, expected to price on Thursday night before trading begins Friday on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, represents both a liquidity event and a volatility event for the trust.
SpaceX is targeting a valuation of around $1.77 trillion, with an offer price of $135 per share that would raise $75 billion for Elon Musk's rocket company. For Scottish Mortgage, the stakes are enormous: the holding accounts for 17.9% of the fund's total assets, making it the single largest position by a wide margin. That concentration has not gone unnoticed. Co-manager Tom Slater has publicly flagged the potential for wild swings, warning that the share price could either halve or double in the first days of trading.
The fund first backed SpaceX in 2018 and has not added to the position since 2021. Its outsized weighting is the product of the portfolio's strong NAV appreciation combined with an aggressive buyback programme that has steadily reduced the number of outstanding shares. As a result, private companies now represent 41.3% of the trust's assets — well above the 30% cap set by its own investment policy. Other unlisted names include ByteDance at 4.8% and Stripe at 3.7%. That cap is due to be tested at the annual general meeting on July 2, when management will ask shareholders to raise the limit. The board has already exceeded the current threshold, making the vote critical.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
In anticipation of the IPO and its potential to unlock liquidity, the trust's management has been active in the secondary market. On Wednesday, it bought back one million of its own shares at a price of roughly 1,414 pence apiece — the second such repurchase in three days. The buyback reflects a new capital allocation policy that allows the trust to intervene only when the stock trades below net asset value. Just weeks ago, in early June, the same team was issuing new shares at a premium, raising £95 million. The shift in sentiment has been rapid.
The squeeze is compounded by the dividend calendar. Thursday marked the ex-dividend date for Scottish Mortgage, with shareholders due a final payout of 2.97 pence per share. The total distribution of £49.6 million far outstrips the underlying net profit of £25.6 million, a disconnect that has raised eyebrows among income-focused investors. The stock was trading at €16.77 on Thursday — down 5.71% for the week but still showing a year-to-date gain of 20.77%. That positive trajectory masks a retreat from the 52-week high of €19.50.
Macro headwinds have added to the pressure. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has dampened hopes for early rate cuts, hitting mega-cap tech names such as Nvidia and Meta that also feature prominently in the Scottish Mortgage portfolio. Against this jittery backdrop, the SpaceX IPO becomes a binary event: a successful debut would transform a hard-to-value private holding into a liquid asset worth roughly £3.5 billion, while a stumble would compound the fund's existing challenges.
Institutional investors appear to be positioning for the outcome. Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management crossed the 3% threshold earlier in June, signalling confidence in the trust's direction. Whether that bet pays off now depends on whether the market's appetite for space stocks matches the valuations of recent tech IPOs. For Scottish Mortgage, the wait is nearly over — but the volatility has only just begun.
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