Siemens Energy’s €6 Billion Buyback Defies a 40 GW Offshore Wind Gap and Gamesa’s 2028 Price War Warning
12.06.2026 - 18:52:42 | boerse-global.de
The mood at Siemens Energy’s Munich headquarters could hardly be more split. On one side, chief executive Christian Bruch is celebrating what he calls a “super-cycle” for gas turbines, powered by the insatiable electricity demand of AI data centres. On the other, the company’s struggling wind-turbine subsidiary, Siemens Gamesa, is sounding the alarm about a brutal price war looming from 2028, triggered by the European Union’s failure to fast-track offshore wind projects.
That tension is now playing out in the share price. The stock has clawed back 1.64 percent to €153.48, recovering some ground after a near-14 percent slide over the past 30 days. Year to date, it still sits roughly 25 percent higher, and the support offered by the 200-day moving average at €136.65 remains intact. But the real story lies in the widening chasm between the group’s booming grid and gas division and its problem child in renewables.
Record orders flood the books
Bruch’s confidence is backed by hard numbers. Siemens Energy booked €17.7 billion in new orders during the second quarter, pushing the total order backlog to an all-time high of €154 billion. The surge is broad-based. Gas-turbine services are enjoying a renaissance as hyperscale data centres place multi-year orders; a quarter of all new gas-service contracts now come from that sector. Grid Technologies, which makes transformers and switchgear, is also riding a global investment wave. The company is ploughing €2.3 billion into new factories for transformers by 2028 to keep up.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?
That momentum allowed Siemens Energy to raise its annual guidance and now targets a profit of roughly €4 billion for the 2026 fiscal year. To shore up investor confidence, management has launched a buyback programme worth up to €6 billion by the end of the 2027/28 fiscal year. The second tranche is already underway, sending a clear signal that the board believes the shares are undervalued given the underlying industrial momentum.
Gamesa’s warning punctures the optimism
Yet beneath that veneer of strength, Siemens Gamesa remains a drag. Vinod Philip, who leads the wind division, has warned that a lack of follow-up orders could force the company to scale back its European footprint by 2028. Factory closures are not the base case, but the management has refused to rule out job cuts. The situation is stark: the EU is currently short by around 40 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity to meet its 2030 target, and in Germany alone projects totalling 16 GW are at risk of stalling.
That is a bitter pill for an industry that has already poured €14 billion into its European supply chain. Siemens Gamesa operates six factories on the continent, employing roughly 20,000 people. A prolonged order drought would threaten those assets just as the group’s grid and gas businesses are running hot.
Analyst view: the core outweighs the periphery
Siemens Energy at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the market appears willing to look through Gamesa’s problems. JPMorgan has set a price target of €225 on the stock, while Deutsche Bank and Berenberg both see the shares reaching €200. The key technical level to watch is the €150 mark; as long as that holds, the long-term uptrend is intact. Analysts argue that the high margins in grid technology and gas services more than compensate for the wind division’s weakness, and that the buyback provides an additional floor under the price.
Nevertheless, the political logjam over offshore wind permits remains a real risk to the group’s longer-term earnings diversification. When Siemens Energy opens the books for its third quarter on 5 August 2026, investors will be listening closely for how deep the order drought has cut into Gamesa’s factory utilisation. Until then, the rally in the core business is doing the heavy lifting, but the warning from Hamburg serves as a stark reminder that not all parts of Siemens Energy are riding the same super-cycle.
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