Silver’s Paradox: COMEX Delivery Demands 22 Million Ounces as Macro Detente Erodes Premium
01.06.2026 - 08:52:27 | boerse-global.deSilver ended last week at $75.83 an ounce, a fractional 0.50% decline on Friday that left the metal nursing a 0.49% weekly loss. Yet the month-over-month performance remains firmly in the black at plus 5.95%, and the price action masks a deepening schism between paper markets and the physical delivery system.
On the COMEX, more than 22 million ounces of silver have been tendered for physical delivery — a signal that actual metal availability is far from comfortable. Registered warehouse inventories remain historically compressed, creating a tension that could amplify price swings once the macro headwinds presently battering the market begin to fade.
Geopolitical Thaw Saps the Risk Premium
The most immediate source of pressure is the diplomatic drift between Washington and Tehran. Reports last week indicated that the United States and Iran have agreed in principle to extend the existing ceasefire by 60 days, with both sides now aiming for a permanent settlement. That prospect has directly undermined the geopolitical risk premium that had fueled safe-haven buying across precious metals in prior months.
Brent crude fell to $91.20 a barrel on Friday — its lowest level in roughly six weeks — and notched a 17% monthly decline in May, the steepest since 2020. Lower energy prices reduce short-term inflation expectations, blunting the appeal of silver as an inflation hedge.
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Analysts caution, however, that a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be slow. Mines need demining, infrastructure requires repair, and production must ramp up. The supply normalization is real but gradual.
Fed’s Inflation Headache Deepens
Compounding the geopolitical détente is a resurgent inflation problem for the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index — the central bank’s favored gauge — rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, while the core rate climbed to 3.3%. Both readings are the highest since May and November 2023, respectively.
The Iran conflict and tariff policy have thrown the Fed’s trajectory off course. The 2% target had appeared within reach; now the inflation gap is widening again. Traders have begun pricing in the possibility of a rate hike as early as next year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has publicly left the door open to rate cuts, but he is likely to face stiff resistance within the FOMC.
A strong dollar and higher yield expectations are classic headwinds for silver, which offers no coupon or dividend. The market is bracing for the US labor market report on June 5, followed by the Fed’s June 16 meeting. A robust jobs print would reinforce the hawkish tilt and push silver lower.
Two Different All-Time Highs
Silver’s decline from its peaks underscores how much the macro narrative has shifted. The primary article notes that the metal is now 37% below its all-time high of $121.64, reached in January. A separate data set cited in another report places the January 28 high at $116.89, making the current discount 35.13%. Both figures highlight the dramatic retreat from the speculative frenzy that accompanied the initial Iran shock.
Technically, silver closed only 0.35% below its 50-day moving average of $76.09. The relative strength index stands at 58.9, signaling no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. Still, the 30-day volatility remains elevated at 55.53%, warning of sudden directional shifts.
Deficit Narrative Remains Intact
Despite the short-term macro drag, the structural supply deficit shows no signs of resolution. The Silver Institute estimates global mine production for 2024 at roughly 820 million ounces against total demand of 1.16 billion ounces. For 2026, the institute projects the sixth consecutive annual deficit — an unprecedented streak.
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UBS has trimmed its deficit forecast from 300 million to 60-70 million ounces and lowered expected investment demand to 300 million ounces. Yet even the revised figure points to persistent under-supply.
The gold-silver ratio has compressed sharply, from above 62:1 at the start of May to 59.3:1 currently. In 2025, silver posted a gain of more than 100%, its best annual performance since 1979 — a reminder that the bulls have a powerful long-term narrative at their disposal.
Key Levels and the Next Catalyst
On the downside, the $70-$72 zone remains the critical support band. It has steadied the metal multiple times over recent months. A clean break below that would darken the technical picture considerably. Above, the 50-day moving average near $76 and the psychological $80 round number are resistance points.
The US jobs report on June 5 and the Fed decision on June 16 are the next major catalysts. If the labor market softens, expectations for a rate hike could recede, giving silver room to rally on its physical tailwinds. If the data remains hot, the divergence between paper weakness and underlying tightness will only grow wider — a tension that historically resolves with a violent move in one direction.
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