Silver’s Rapid Reversal Highlights Market’s Duel Between Fed Fears and Hormuz Hope
02.06.2026 - 19:31:15 | boerse-global.de
Silver’s 121% annual gain tells only part of the story. Over the past two trading sessions the metal has been yanked in opposite directions, first dropping sharply on dollar strength and rising rate expectations, then bouncing back as oil prices eased and diplomatic signals emerged over the Strait of Hormuz.
On Monday, June 1, spot silver slid 1.7% to $73.96 an ounce. The trigger was not the Middle East escalation itself — typically a haven-supportive event — but its inflationary fallout. News that Iran struck a US airbase after American attacks on military targets sent oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears. Gold also suffered, shedding 1.9% to $4,451.65 an ounce, while US gold futures dropped 2.5% to $4,479.20.
The macro calculus changed rapidly. The CME FedWatch tool showed traders pricing in a 56% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end. Higher rates make non-yielding assets like silver less attractive, and a stronger dollar adds further pain for buyers using other currencies.
By Tuesday, the picture had inverted. Spot silver climbed 1.85% to $76.25, recouping much of the prior day’s loss. Falling oil prices relieved some inflationary pressure, and US Treasury yields eased back from elevated levels. On a monthly basis silver now stands 4.87% higher.
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The Strait of Hormuz remains the central flashpoint. Iranian state media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. But President Donald Trump offered a more optimistic view, saying talks were ongoing and that a memorandum to reopen the strait could be reached within the next week. For silver, any resolution that lowers energy costs would reduce the inflation premium that has driven rate expectations higher.
Yet the metal remains roughly 20% below the level it traded at before the conflict escalated. That gap highlights a market that is pricing in not just risk-off premiums but also the risk of tighter monetary policy. The ten-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.5%, keeping a cap on any rally.
The underlying supply-demand picture adds another layer. The Silver Institute reported in April that global demand outstripped supply for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, drawing down above-ground inventories. For 2026 it forecasts a structural deficit of 46.3 million ounces, with total demand easing 2% to 1.11 billion ounces. The decline is led by a weaker photovoltaics sector, though coin and bar investment is expected to provide support. Mine production rose 3% in 2025 to 846.6 million ounces but is seen stabilizing this year.
UBS has taken a more cautious stance, cutting its deficit estimate from 300 million ounces to a range of 60 to 70 million ounces, and lowering its annual investment demand forecast to 300 million ounces. Still, the bank acknowledges that roughly 70% of global silver output comes as a byproduct of other metals, and primary silver mines face declining ore grades and rising costs, limiting the scope for a rapid supply response.
Industrial demand from electronics, energy infrastructure, and AI data centers continues to underpin the metal, preventing a sharper decline even as macro headwinds build. That industrial base has acted as a floor.
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Technically, silver remains well below the two-month high of $89.40 hit in mid-May. Short-term traders are watching two catalysts closely: any progress on the Hormuz memo and Friday’s US jobs report for May. The week’s data calendar — including JOLTS, ADP, ISM services, and the Fed Beige Book — will give further clues on whether the economy is running hot enough to force the Fed’s hand.
For now, the white metal is caught between a tightening monetary outlook and a structural deficit that won't disappear quickly. Which force wins will depend on whether diplomacy or inflation gets the upper hand in the days ahead.
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