Silver’s Structural Squeeze Meets a Hawkish Bet: Fed Dot Plot Looms Over a Market Torn Between $68 and a Six-Year Deficit
13.06.2026 - 12:32:54 | boerse-global.de
The silver market entered the weekend with a fragile sense of calm, but the forces pulling it in opposite directions are only intensifying. On Friday, the metal closed at $68.13 per ounce on the Comex, clawing back roughly 1 percent after President Donald Trump signalled a halt to further airstrikes on Iran. That truce talk snapped a brutal stretch that had erased nearly a quarter of silver’s value over the past month. Yet the move was less a celebration of peace than a wary pause — traders know that the real catalyst arrives on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve unveils its updated dot plot.
The supply side of the equation tells a very different story, one of deepening scarcity. The Silver Institute now projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit for the global silver market, with a shortfall of 46.3 million ounces expected for 2026. That brings the cumulative deficit since 2021 to over 760 million ounces. Physical inventories on the COMEX have slumped almost 40 percent in recent months, leaving just 315 million ounces in warehouses. This structural tightness is providing a floor under prices even as macroeconomic headwinds batter the asset.
Industrial demand is the primary driver of that scarcity, accounting for 57 percent of total silver consumption — up from roughly half just five years ago. Surging demand from artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and data centres is soaking up supply. The one notable exception is the solar industry, where manufacturers are squeezing costs by reducing the use of expensive silver paste. The Silver Institute forecasts a 19 percent drop in photovoltaic demand this year, equivalent to around 151 million ounces. But the overall industrial picture remains robust enough to keep the market in deficit.
The geopolitical rerate on Friday offered only a temporary lift. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, urged caution, warning that investors should not read too much into headline-driven moves. “Real progress depends on actions from Tehran, not words from Washington,” he said. Technically, the metal remains vulnerable: the price is still more than 10 percent below its 50-day moving average, which currently sits near $76. That level acts as a formidable resistance barrier.
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The true test comes on June 16–17, when the Federal Open Market Committee convenes under its new chairman, Kevin Warsh. No change in the federal funds rate is expected — inflation remains stubborn at 4.2 percent — so all eyes will be on the dot plot, the summary of policymakers’ rate expectations. A hawkish set of dots, signalling no cuts until late 2026 or beyond, would likely extend silver’s weakness into the third quarter. A hint that a September rate cut is on the table, however, would give the metal powerful upside momentum.
Macroeconomic pressures are not limited to the Fed. The European Central Bank recently raised its deposit rate to 2.25 percent, while May data showed US producer prices climbing 6.5 percent year on year. That combination keeps the dollar elevated and makes zero-yielding assets like silver less attractive relative to bonds. On a year-to-date basis, the metal is still nursing a loss of nearly 6 percent, a far cry from the January all-time high of roughly $122.
The gold-to-silver ratio currently stands at 63. Historically, such levels have preceded periods where silver outperforms gold, a pattern that could re-emerge if the Fed delivers a dovish surprise. For now, traders are bracing for a week that will test whether the supply deficit can overcome the weight of monetary tightening. The 52-week low of $45.51 remains a risk if the dot plot dashes hopes of near-term easing, but the physical shortage means any pullback is likely to be met with strong buying interest.
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The weekend ahead could either reinforce the rebound — if a concrete peace deal emerges — or leave the market flat-footed. Either way, Wednesday’s Fed update will draw the clearest line under silver’s near-term trajectory. Until then, the tension between a historic supply crunch and a hawkish central bank sets the stage for an unusually volatile session.
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