SK Hynix’s Vanishing Chip Inventory Sparks Record Price Targets and a $31 Billion Production Sprint
21.05.2026 - 10:53:02 | boerse-global.de
The shelves are bare. SK Hynix has sold every last memory chip it can make — DRAM, NAND, and the high-bandwidth HBM variants that power AI accelerators are all spoken for. That scarcity has ignited a furious rally in the stock, which now trades at 1,940,000 Won, up 11.17% on the day and a staggering 186.56% since the start of the year. The relative strength index sits at 68.9 — hot, but not yet overbought, suggesting momentum still has room to run.
Nomura Securities has responded with its boldest call yet on the memory maker, lifting its price target to 4 million Won from 2.34 million Won. It is the first major brokerage to assign such a valuation to SK Hynix. The reasoning: a prolonged memory super-cycle fueled by AI data-center spending, where the company’s position as a key supplier of chips for accelerators gives it pricing power. Nomura now forecasts operating profit of 281 trillion Won in 2026 and 480 trillion Won by 2028. Shinhan Securities is nearly as bullish, doubling its target to 3.8 million Won, predicting DRAM average selling prices will climb 273% and NAND prices 292% through 2027.
To meet that demand, SK Hynix is shoveling money into new factories at breakneck speed. The Yongin semiconductor cluster — a 31 trillion Won bet — will open its first clean room in February 2027, three months ahead of the original schedule. At full tilt, the facility will churn out 350,000 extra wafers each month. Meanwhile, the M15X plant in Cheongju is starting production two months early, dedicated to the HBM3E and HBM4 chips that are the lifeblood of next-generation AI systems. The company has also begun mass production of a new memory module called SOCAMM2, purpose-built for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera-Rubin platform, delivering double the bandwidth at much lower power.
Nvidia itself provided a tailwind when it reported first-quarter revenue of $81.62 billion, up 85% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.87. Any sign that the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating lifts the entire supply chain, and SK Hynix sits at its heart. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, warns the market is facing the worst supply crunch in 15 years, with major tech customers like Microsoft and Google reportedly offering pre-financing to lock in future capacity.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Yet the company’s dominance is not unassailable. Samsung Electronics has reportedly passed final quality tests for HBM4 at Nvidia, with deliveries expected to begin this summer. The catch: Samsung’s production yield for comparable chips still lags below 60%, whereas SK Hynix has achieved 80%. The gap provides a buffer, but Samsung’s progress — and its role as a supplier for future AMD graphics processors — signals that competition in HBM is intensifying.
Financially, SK Hynix is firing on all cylinders. Revenue in the most recent quarter nearly tripled to about 53 trillion Won, and the operating margin hit an eye-popping 72%. Those numbers have drawn a range of analyst targets: UBS sets a modest 1.7 million Won, while SK Securities goes as high as 3 million Won.
But the rally also carries risks beyond rivals. A labor dispute is brewing. After South Korea’s “Yellow Envelope Law” took effect in March 2026, the union at subcontractor P&S Logis is demanding direct wage negotiations with SK Hynix and a 30% profit share. NH Investment warns that rising labor costs along the semiconductor supply chain could eventually pressure margins. For now, though, the AI narrative overshadows everything. The PLUS Global HBM Semiconductor ETF, in which SK Hynix is a top holding, has returned over 676% in three years.
SK Hynix at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next test for the stock will not be another analyst upgrade — it will be execution. SK Hynix must boost HBM yields, keep its factories humming, and contain cost pressures from the supply chain. If it succeeds, the new valuation targets may look conservative. If production stumbles, the premium built into the current price will become dangerously exposed.
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