SpaceX at the Forefront of Scottish Mortgage’s NAV Recalibration
25.05.2026 - 06:02:47 | boerse-global.de
A coming SpaceX listing is forcing Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust to reveal the skeleton of its portfolio while simultaneously pushing its risk profile into uncharted territory. With the SpaceX stake now the juggernaut within the fund, management is charting a path through a multi-stage lock-up and a renewed framework for its unlisted holdings.
As of 31 March 2026, Scottish Mortgage values its SpaceX exposure at a enterprise value of USD 1.25 trillion, deliberately below the chatter around USD 1.75 trillion. The assessment is based on verifiable transactions, not market gossip. The SpaceX position represents 19.3% of the portfolio and carries an approximate value of GBP 2.98 billion, making it the fund’s single-largest bet. SpaceX has been the strongest contributor to returns across one-, three-, and five-year horizons in the portfolio.
Lock-up details are unusually explicit for this kind of disclosure. The trust has not finalised the exact post-listing selling restrictions, nor the duration, nor whether it will face the same terms as other pre-IPO investors. Experience from comparable listings suggests a roughly six-month guard rail. Industry consensus and the S-1 blueprint hint at a multi-tranche unlock: up to 20% of the restricted shares could be released after the second quarter of 2026, followed by a 10% tranche contingent on the stock trading at least 30% above the issue price, then a 28% release after the third quarter, and several 7% steps thereafter. Full trading freedom would therefore be achieved in the middle to end of December 2026. The complete S-1 prospectus with audited numbers is anticipated in May or June.
The implications for portfolio management are material. Once SpaceX begins trading, the daily market price will flow straight into the trust’s net asset value, increasing visible volatility and refining the NAV picture in real time. That structural change comes on top of a broader plan to reallocate the balance of the portfolio around unlisted assets.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Scottish Mortgage Investment?
Unlisted exposure remains a focal risk. Non-listed investments currently account for 41.6% of assets, well above the 30% ceiling temporarily approved by shareholders in April. Investors have since authorised an additional GBP 250 million of capacity for non-listed holdings on an annual basis, cementing a higher, deliberately chosen exposure as part of the strategy.
Outside SpaceX, the fund’s holdings include ByteDance and Stripe, both with potential IPO ambitions. In the artificial intelligence arena, Anthropic sits alongside stock-market names such as Nvidia and ASML on the public side of the ledger.
The market backdrop has helped the share price extend gains. The stock has advanced about 29% year-to-date and trades at a 52-week high of EUR 17.93. This environment has practical consequences: on 22 May the trust issued 2.25 million Treasury shares at GBP 1,496.62 per share, a price above the NAV. Since 2024, Scottish Mortgage has deployed roughly GBP 3 billion in buybacks to support the share price; with the SpaceX bet increasingly tying the NAV to a volatile, high-growth profile, the capital allocation engine is shifting toward issuance rather than repurchase.
Shareholders at the annual general meeting in Edinburgh on 2 July will vote on a final dividend of GBP 0.0279 per share, with an ex-dividend date of 15 June and a final yield of 0.32%. The trust has a long history of dividend growth, having increased its payout for 43 consecutive years, a record that investors tend to regard as a curiosity rather than the core investment thesis. The eye remains firmly fixed on growth, not income.
The SpaceX narrative is reinforced by the IPO’s own framing. SpaceX is slated to price and begin trading on the Nasdaq on 12 June 2026 under the ticker SPCX, with a proposed issue size between USD 40 billion and USD 80 billion and a valuation that could reach up to USD 2 trillion, potentially becoming the largest IPO in Wall Street history. In its first quarter, SpaceX reported a net loss of USD 4.27 billion as it continued heavy investment in AI infrastructure, offset by an operating profit of USD 4.42 billion from Starlink, up 120.5% year over year.
Index dynamics add another layer of potential upside. A May 2026 rule adjustment means SpaceX could qualify for the Nasdaq 100 as early as 15 days after trading begins. A separate review by the S&P 500 committee on 28 May is examining whether megacap IPOs should be eligible for connection to the broader index family, with a hypothetical inclusion from March 2027 potentially triggering meaningful passive inflows. If either pathway materialises, the SpaceX stake’s impact on the trust’s market value and yield could extend beyond the company’s own earnings trajectory.
Beyond SpaceX, Nvidia serves as a second pillar for the portfolio’s growth thesis. Nvidia’s first-quarter revenue came in at USD 81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, with the data-centre business rising 92% YoY. That momentum helps explain why Scottish Mortgage trades at a premium to NAV—about 6.52% on the current price. The euro-denominated share price also mirrors this strength, with the 52-week high continuing to print above the mid-€17s.
Looking ahead, the official SpaceX roadshow kicks off on 4 June, after which more granular data on institutional demand will surface. The May 28 S&P rule review offers a lantern for what could follow in passive flows, and the June 12 listing will anchor the NAV framework in a new, more volatile growth paradigm. For now, the fund’s stance remains explicit: a high-conviction bet on SpaceX, more room for unlisted exposure, and a NAV that increasingly reflects the market’s appetite for AI-driven growth.
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