SpaceX's $75 Billion Nasdaq Debut: $250B in Orders, 82% Voting Power for Musk, and a $63 Fair-Value Warning
11.06.2026 - 23:05:30 | boerse-global.de
When SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq this Friday under the ticker SPCX, it will mark the largest initial public offering in history—but one that leaves outside investors with little more than a financial stake. The $135-per-share price, set after a frenetic book-building process that attracted more than $250 billion in total orders, values the company at roughly $1.75 trillion. Yet the same prospectus that outlines a $75 billion capital raise also reveals a control structure that hands Elon Musk 82.4% of the voting power, effectively rendering the board immune to shareholder pressure.
Retail's Unprecedented Slice
The IPO comprises 555.6 million Class A shares, with underwriters holding a 30-day option to sell an additional 83.3 million shares. At the base size, net proceeds are expected to reach about $74.4 billion; full exercise of the over-allotment could push that figure to $85.7 billion. In an unusual move that underscores demand from Main Street, SpaceX has set aside at least 20%—and potentially up to 30%—of the offering for retail investors. That allocation, worth roughly $22.5 billion at the top end, far exceeds the typical 5% to 10% reserved for individuals in mega-IPOs. Orders from private investors alone topped $70 billion, indicating that the retail tranche will be heavily oversubscribed. Distribution partners include Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi, and E-Trade by Morgan Stanley. Institutional investors, meanwhile, are drawn from a pool of about 1,000 names.
A Dual-Class Grip
The share structure ensures that economic ownership and corporate influence remain decoupled. Each Class A share carries one vote; each Class B share carries ten. Moreover, as long as even a single Class B share exists, holders of that class retain the right to elect a majority of the board. Musk, who will control the vast majority of the Class B stock, will therefore command 82.4% of the total voting power after the listing. That level of control lets him unilaterally pass all significant shareholder resolutions as long as he holds more than half the votes—meaning public investors get a front-row seat but no voice.
The arrangement has already drawn fire from institutional heavyweights. In May, the New York State Comptroller, the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), and the New York City Comptroller wrote to oppose the dual-class structure, mandatory arbitration clauses for shareholder disputes, and the company’s status as a “controlled company.” They advocated for a one-share-one-vote model, a sunset provision for the supervoting rights, and a board composed mostly of independent directors.
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Political pressure is also building. Senator Elizabeth Warren sent a 12-page letter to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Wednesday, urging the agency to delay the IPO. She cited concerns about the opaqueness of the valuation, the outsized voting power concentrated with Musk, and accounting questions surrounding SpaceX’s February 2026 merger with xAI, Musk’s artificial-intelligence venture.
Losses Deep, Ambition Deeper
Despite the astronomical valuation, the company's financials reveal a business that is still burning cash at a rapid pace. SpaceX reported a consolidated net loss of $4.94 billion for fiscal 2025, followed by another $4.28 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The Starlink satellite broadband division provides a bright spot: it generated an operating profit of $4.4 billion on $11.4 billion in revenue last year. But the enormous spending required to build out AI computing infrastructure—largely tied to xAI—is overwhelming those earnings. xAI itself recorded $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025, yet suffered a $6.36 billion loss.
The proceeds from the IPO are earmarked for exactly those capital-intensive ambitions: AI computing infrastructure, launch infrastructure and rockets, the satellite constellation, and general corporate purposes. By bundling space launch, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence into a single equity offering, SpaceX is tapping three of the most hyped investment themes on Wall Street—but also betting that investors will tolerate losses in pursuit of long-term dominance.
Index-Debut Roadblocks
The path to benchmark inclusion is not straightforward. SpaceX could qualify for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days under the exchange's fast-track rule, a development that would trigger significant passive inflows. However, the S&P 500 requires four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability, a milestone that analysts do not expect before late 2027 or early 2028. Until then, the stock will remain outside the broadest U.S. equity benchmark.
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A 160% Gap Between Analyst Views
The divergence in fair-value estimates is as wide as the Atlantic. New Street Research rates the stock "Overweight" with a 12-month price target of $165, pointing to a potential $10 trillion market for orbital data centers and space-based computing. On the other end, Morningstar pegs fair value at just $63 per share, arguing that the IPO price embeds a substantial speculative premium for Starship Mars missions and an AI business that has yet to demonstrate profitability.
Friday’s opening trade will set an initial price, but the real verdict will come in the quarterly reports that follow—and in how quickly xAI can reverse its $6.36 billion loss. Until then, buyers of the SpaceX IPO are buying a ticket to the journey, not a seat at the controls.
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