Thyssenkrupp's 34% Monthly Surge Masks a Looming Governance Showdown Over Its Largest Division
01.06.2026 - 14:23:30 | boerse-global.de
The Thyssenkrupp share has been on a tear. Up more than 34% over the past month and 21% since the start of the year, the stock now trades at €11.72 – a level that has compressed the upside toward the average analyst target of €12.36. But the rally obscures a battle brewing at the heart of the Essen-based industrial group: a plan to spin off the Materials Services division, which accounts for over a third of group revenue, is running into stiff opposition from labour representatives.
CEO Miguel López wants to transform Materials Services – a €11.4 billion-revenue business with more than 15,000 staff handling steel, plastics and logistics – into a Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien (KGaA). That legal structure would allow Thyssenkrupp to retain operational control even with only a minority stake, effectively sidelining traditional co-determination rights. Multiple insiders describe the management’s approach as “increasingly radical”, with worker representatives fearing their influence could be neutered. The supervisory board is expected to hold an extraordinary meeting in June to discuss the future of the unit.
If López gets his way, the carve-out would be the third major break-up move after the Nucera hydrogen spin-off in 2023 and the flotation of Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems last October. So far, the company’s fundamental performance has been mixed. Group order intake jumped 32% to €10.6 billion in the latest quarter, and adjusted EBIT surged from €19 million to €198 million, boosted by the marine division and the ongoing APEX performance programme. Yet revenue slipped to €8.4 billion, slightly below the prior-year period, and management has trimmed its organic sales forecast for 2025/26 to a decline of 3% to 0% from the earlier minus-2% to plus-1% range.
The full-year guidance for adjusted EBIT (€500-900 million), free cash flow and net earnings remains intact, though the group still expects a net loss. Balance-sheet comfort comes from €4.6 billion in available liquidity, including cash and undrawn credit lines.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Analysts remain broadly constructive but far from unanimous. Five of eight polled experts recommend buying the stock, two say hold and one advises selling. The average price target of €12.36 leaves little room after the recent run: the shares are now just over 5% below that consensus. The targets themselves span a wide range – Deutsche Bank at €14.50, Jefferies at €13.00, JPMorgan with two-tier marks of €11.80 and €10.10, and Barclays at the bearish end with €9.00. Technically, the relative strength index sits at 64.2, suggesting there is still headroom but no bargain entry point.
Meanwhile, the group’s restructuring efforts are grinding on. The US plant in Terre Haute, Indiana, is set to close by 31 March 2027, with chassis operations shifting to Hamilton, Ohio. The company has already approved roughly 1,800 job cuts aimed at saving more than €150 million annually.
On the regulatory front, a tailwind has come from Brussels. Late last month, the European Parliament approved a measure to slash tariff-free steel import quotas to 18.3 million tonnes per year – a 47% reduction from 2024 levels. Imports exceeding that quota will face a 50% duty, double the current 25%. Formal ratification by the Council is expected before the end of June, providing some breathing room for Thyssenkrupp’s Steel Europe division.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The stock has climbed 38% over the past twelve months and is now 63% above its 52-week low of €7.15, but it still sits 11.5% below the high of €13.24. Whether the next leg higher materialises depends less on Brussels or quarterly earnings and more on a single June board meeting – and whether López can forge a compromise with labour before the KGaA model triggers a full-blown co-determination crisis.
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