TUI’s Earnings Stabilise But a €40 Million Middle East Dent Leaves Investors Cold
13.05.2026 - 17:23:02 | boerse-global.de
TUI has kept its second-quarter operating numbers from sinking, but a €40 million charge from the Middle East conflict dragged the headline figure into the red and did little to reverse the stock’s slide. Shares changed hands at €6.40 on Wednesday, barely above the year’s low of €6.15, extending a 28% decline since January. The company is counting on a late summer booking wave to meet full-year targets, though the forward-looking picture remains clouded.
Revenue in the three months to March held steady at roughly €3.7 billion, while adjusted earnings before interest and tax improved slightly to minus €188 million on a currency-adjusted basis. Without the exceptional items, the group would have posted a small operating profit. Alongside the Middle East costs, a hurricane in Jamaica added a single-digit million-euro charge of its own.
Performance across the divisions was mixed. TUI Musement, the tours and activities arm, saw adjusted EBIT jump 29%. The Markets & Airline segment reported an 8% advance. Hotels & Resorts, however, suffered a 5% decline on currency headwinds, and the Cruises unit dropped 3% as itinerary changes in the eastern Mediterranean ate into earnings. Summer bookings currently trail last year’s pace by 7%, with travellers favouring Spain and Greece over destinations such as Egypt and Turkey.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
The market’s scepticism is reflected in the analyst community. JPMorgan reiterated its “Overweight” rating and a price target of €12.50, pointing to the company’s fundamental growth in the first half. Bernstein Research struck a more cautious tone, flagging the growing trend of last-minute reservations, which complicates visibility. Management is still targeting a full-year adjusted EBIT of €1.1–1.4 billion, though it withdrew its original revenue forecast owing to persistent volatility. A sizeable hedging programme for jet fuel has been put in place to cushion further cost surprises.
Away from the quarterly numbers, the company is strengthening its partner network. Philipp von Czapiewski, who previously ran TUI’s Swiss business, will take over as head of DSR Hotel Holding in mid-August. The DSR portfolio comprises 33 hotels across Europe, including the A-ROSA and aja brands, and the appointment reflects the close ties between TUI and its key hotel partners. He succeeds Marek Andryszak, who left the group in March.
On the charts, the stock has slipped below its 200-day moving average by nearly 19%, leaving the technical support at €6.15 as the next key level to defend. With the half-year report now out, the onus is on TUI to show that the operational improvement is genuine and not merely a respite between shocks. The market will be watching the summer booking curve closely.
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