Two Speeds at ITM Power: Retail Runs for the Exit While Institutions Wait on a £46.5m Signal

The story of ITM Power’s stock right now is a tale of two investors. While retail holders have been taking profits with both hands, their institutional counterparts are sitting tight, keeping their eyes trained on a single date: May 26. That is when the UK subsidy watchdog is due to deliver its verdict on a £46.5 million grant for the company’s next-generation electrolyser line, Chrónos.

The divergence in behaviour showed up clearly on Tuesday, when the shares slipped nearly 5% to close at 156.80 pence in London, down from 165.02 pence the day before. The intraday range ballooned to 10.24%, and volume spiked — a pattern technical traders often interpret as a short-term selling flurry. But the move was not enough to shift the longer view held by the big funds.

Those institutional holders are banking on a positive outcome for the Chronos project, a fully automated gigawatt-scale manufacturing line planned for ITM’s Sheffield plant. The facility would produce 2-megawatt electrolyser units that promise to slash costs by 40% compared with the current Trident systems. If the subsidy clears, management intends to take a final investment decision in June. Deliveries are expected to start in 2028.

The entire financing package underpinning this expansion comes to £86.5 million. It includes a £40 million state-backed equity injection from Great British Energy, which took a 10.4% stake in April, alongside the potential £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. The money is earmarked specifically for the Chronos stack development.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

Heads I win, tails you lose

Retail investors, however, have been cashing out after a spectacular run. Since January the stock has surged roughly 160%, and at one point on a 12-month basis the gain was around 400%. After the shares hit 166.50 pence — close to the 178-pence area that has repeatedly acted as resistance — private clients began to head for the door. On the AJ Bell platform, ITM Power recently became the most-sold stock. One session saw the price slump to 143.30 pence on turnover of 13.2 million shares, well above the daily average.

That kind of selling has left the stock trading in a narrow band. Technically, the slide below the short-term moving average has clouded the picture. The immediate downside focus is on the 152-pence support zone. A clean break below that level could deepen the consolidation, while a recovery above 170 pence would offer some respite. The 170–178 pence corridor remains the next serious test on the upside.

More than one catalyst in the pipeline

Beyond the subsidy decision, ITM Power has other potential triggers. The Humber H2ub project backed by Uniper received planning approval in March; ITM has already won the FEED contract and is due to supply six POSEIDON modules, with commercial operations targeted for 2029. Separately, the partnership with Rheinmetall announced in mid-April — a project dubbed Giga PtX — aims to build modular electrolysers for synthetic fuel production, with an eye on NATO applications. That deal adds strategic depth but, like the government backing, depends on execution timelines rather than immediate revenue.

The analyst community remains deeply split on valuation. Jefferies raised its price target from 115 to 200 pence, while Morgan Stanley upgraded to “Overweight” with a 170 pence target. Morgan Stanley sees the path to an operating break-even at around 200 megawatts of new wins, which would generate an estimated £13 million in EBITDA by fiscal 2028. UBS, in contrast, sticks with “Neutral” and a 60 pence target, arguing the market has run well ahead of the fundamentals.

The numbers that matter

ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The company’s order book stands at £152 million, while its pre-tax loss widened to £45.4 million in the most recent fiscal year. But the balance sheet offers a cushion: ITM holds approximately £198 million in cash and carries no debt, giving it runway at least until 2028, according to Jefferies. Management has also raised its full-year revenue guidance to more than £40 million.

CEO Dennis Schulz has linked part of his compensation to the timely delivery of Chronos milestones. That makes the May 26 decision not just a regulatory checkpoint but a personal gauge of confidence.

For now, the stock is caught between a short-term profit-taking phase and a long-range bet on industrial policy, technology and commercial scale. The next few weeks will show which side of that divide is reading the future correctly.

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