Verbio Posts Sevenfold EBITDA Jump; New Regulations Cement Growth Path

Verbio’s third-quarter results have upended the cautious narrative that had been weighing on the stock. The biodiesel and bioethanol producer reported a dramatic swing in profitability, sending shares soaring nearly 15% on Wednesday to €37.88 and wiping out the losses that had accumulated over the previous weeks.

Revenue for the three months climbed 13% to €447.1 million, but the headline came from the bottom line. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) surged to €60.2 million from just €8.2 million a year earlier, a near sevenfold leap that reflects both higher volumes and better margins in the core biofuels business. Over the first nine months of the financial year, EBITDA already stands at €105.7 million, putting the company comfortably within the recently raised full-year guidance of €100 million to €140 million – management now expects to land at the upper end of that range.

The improvement in operational performance has been accompanied by steady balance-sheet repair. Net financial debt fell to €126.8 million, a tangible step toward the year-end target of roughly €140 million that management set before the quarter’s release. That target itself represents clear progress from last year’s €164 million and signals that the cash-flow recovery is feeding through to leverage reduction.

What sets Verbio apart from many commodity-linked peers is the regulatory scaffolding now being erected around its markets. Germany’s Bundesrat has approved a phased increase in the greenhouse-gas reduction quota (THG-Quote), lifting it to 17.5% by 2027 with a long-term goal of 65% by 2040. The policy effectively guarantees rising demand for biofuels in the transport sector, removing some of the volume uncertainty that has historically dogged the industry.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Verbio?

Alongside that, the new Building Modernisation Act (GEG) will mandate a binding blending quota for biogenic fuels in new oil and gas heating systems from 2029. The obligation starts at 10% and rises to 15% in 2030, 30% in 2035 and 60% by 2040. For Verbio, this opens a second, largely captive demand channel beyond road transport and strengthens the argument that the company’s addressable market is structurally expanding.

The market’s enthusiasm, however, is not universally shared. Jefferies reiterated its “Hold” rating with a price target of €25, well below the current trading level. The bank’s caution reflects lingering doubts about margin sustainability and the competitive pressure from conventional fuel alternatives, even as Verbio benefits from the current oil-price uplift that is supporting E10 demand.

Meanwhile, the company is laying the groundwork for a broader strategic shift. At its Bitterfeld site, Verbio is building an ethenolysis plant capable of producing 60,000 tonnes of bio-based speciality chemicals annually from the second half of 2026. The project is designed to reduce exposure to the often volatile biofuels markets and to generate higher-value revenue streams from renewable raw materials. Details on construction progress and the plant’s longer-term contribution are expected to feature prominently in today’s analyst call.

Verbio at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The stock’s reaction on Wednesday – a sharp rebound after a 10% decline over the prior seven days – underscores the extent to which sentiment had soured ahead of the numbers. Even after the jump, the year-to-date gain stands at roughly 70%, reflecting the market’s growing conviction that Verbio’s operational turnaround is real and that the regulatory environment will underpin demand for years to come. The key test now is whether the fourth quarter can sustain the momentum and close the gap between Jefferies’ scepticism and the market’s evident optimism.

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