WisdomTree Silver 3x: Two Dates That Will Decide Silver’s Next Move
24.05.2026 - 04:41:29 | boerse-global.de
Silver finds itself squeezed between a structurally bullish supply picture and a Federal Reserve that is in no hurry to cut rates. Two events in the coming weeks — the second revision of first-quarter US GDP and the PCE price deflator on Thursday, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on 16–17 June — should determine whether the metal breaks out of its May trading range or slides deeper into consolidation.
The precious metal has spent most of the month oscillating between $71 and $88 an ounce, lately hovering around $76. A 90-day tariff truce between the US and China triggered a sharp 6% spike on 11 May, briefly pushing silver above $87 before April CPI data at 3.8% — above expectations — yanked it back to $84. The WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged ETC, which had undergone a share split earlier in May, closed the week at roughly 1,271 GBX in London, reflecting the amplified consequences of these swings.
One of the most striking moves occurred in the gold-to-silver ratio, which compressed from about 62:1 to under 55:1 in a single week — among the fastest such compressions in years. Gold barely budged; silver did all the heavy lifting.
The fundamental case for silver remains firmly grounded in a persistent supply deficit. Estimates differ: a projection from one source puts the 2026 shortfall at 46.3 million ounces, while the Silver Institute, drawing on Metals Focus data, forecasts a larger deficit of 67 million ounces. Whichever figure one uses, the market is on track for its sixth consecutive annual deficit. A cumulative shortfall of roughly 900 million ounces has already built up between 2021 and 2025. China has added to the squeeze by classifying silver as a strategic material, tightening export licences and prioritising domestic industrial use, thereby reducing the amount available to international buyers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged?
Global production is expected to inch up 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces this year, the highest in a decade, but that is not enough to close the gap. Crucially, 70–80% of worldwide silver output is a by-product of mining for copper, lead, zinc or gold — so even a sharp price rise does little to unlock new supply.
On the demand side, the picture is shifting. Industrial silver processing is forecast to fall 2% year-on-year to roughly 650 million ounces, a four-year low, as solar-panel manufacturers actively reduce the silver content of photovoltaic cells. According to BloombergNEF, PV demand is expected to drop 7% to about 194 million ounces despite 15% growth in global solar capacity — efficiency gains are eating into the volume increase. Offsetting that, the electric-vehicle sector is expected to absorb 70–75 million ounces this year, supported by 14–15 million new EV registrations. Additional demand flows from 5G infrastructure, AI data centres and medical technology.
Analyst forecasts span a wide range. J.P. Morgan sees an average silver price of $81 an ounce in 2026, while a Reuters median of 30 analysts lands at $79.50. ING’s latest projection stands at $78, though the bank also expects a peak near $85 by mid-year. On the more bullish end, Citigroup is targeting $110 for the second half, and Bank of America published a scenario range of $135 to $309 based on possible further compression of the gold-to-silver ratio.
The technical picture adds another layer of uncertainty. If silver breaks below the support zone at $76–$77, a retreat toward $72–$74 looks likely. Whether buyers step back in will depend heavily on Thursday’s data. The first BEA estimate showed the PCE price index at 4.5%, up from 2.9% in the previous quarter — a jump that already dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts. Should the second revision confirm that reading or revise it higher, the pressure on silver would increase, given the metal’s sensitivity to negative real interest rates.
The Federal Reserve is weighing even more heavily on sentiment. Markets now assign less than an 8% probability to a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, down from 48% before the April CPI release. Indeed, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike by October have risen to roughly 55%. The June FOMC gathering marks the first meeting since March to include an updated dot plot. A hawkish dot plot would likely keep silver’s consolidation going into the third quarter; any signal that a September cut remains in play could provide the next upward catalyst.
For the WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged ETC — which charges a total expense ratio of 0.99% and oversees roughly €330 million in assets — this environment means that every daily move in the underlying Solactive Silver Commodity Futures SL Index is tripled. The daily reset mechanism introduces a compounding effect that can significantly alter long-term returns, amplifying both the tariff-truce rally and the subsequent CPI-driven pullback. Until the outlook for US monetary policy becomes clearer, silver’s triple-leveraged product is likely to remain as volatile as the metal itself.
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